With His War in Ukraine, Putin Has Overlooked a Much Better Option for Russia While Strengthening the US-EU Relationship More Than Ever.
The history books will remember this attack on Ukraine as the most counterproductive strategic decision in Russian history.
Historians of international relations will remember the attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, as the most counterproductive strategic decision in Russia's history. First, by resorting to violence, Russia has destroyed forever the immense influence it had on the population of its Ukrainian neighbor, who shared its language, religion, and culture.
Secondly, Putin's Russia has cut itself off, economically and politically, from Western Europe, which had been supplying it with technology since Peter the Great and which had, for a quarter of a century, built a close energy partnership with it. No one finds any relevance in the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis, which Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder dreamed of in 2003, after the American invasion of Iraq.
Finally, Putin's Russia has consolidated the transatlantic link, even though its official strategy was to establish a multipolar world, where its influence was supposed to compete with that of the United States. Never since the end of the Cold War have the Americans been so influential in Europe. And no one thinks of rebelling against this influence anymore, even if France and Germany refuse to become collateral victims of the Sino-American technological and commercial confrontation.
Since there is no other European state than France that is interested in “European strategic autonomy,” Emmanuel Macron will have to promote it through concrete actions, rather than speeches. France will always be a pole of resistance, but it is clear that today, continental Europe is subjugated by the Anglosphere (the community of lands of English culture, once governed by London, today by Washington).
This submission, voluntary and assumed, is at the same time political, military, cultural, and legal.
The strengthening of the transatlantic link was evident during the French President's state visit to the United States (November 29-December 2, 2022), which was particularly warm. In response to French recriminations about recent American protectionist measures (notably the Inflation Reduction Act of August 16, 2022, which massively subsidizes American manufacturers involved in the fight against climate change), President Biden replied that adjustments were still possible in the implementation of the law (potential executive waivers).
The main topic of the Biden-Macron talks was of course security in Europe.
Cyclically, the Americans appreciate the fact that France is supplying arms to the Ukrainians. Structurally, they are grateful that France has remained a credible military power. Since the Eisenhower Administration, Washington has always wanted a militarily strong Europe. It was the Europeans alone who chose to disarm themselves, in the years 1991-2014. On the war in Ukraine, the French and American positions are now totally aligned.
First, aid to Ukraine will continue as long as its territory remains invaded. Second, no pressure on the Ukrainians to make concessions on their recently occupied territories; Americans and French believe that it is up to Ukraine alone to decide the timing and content of its future negotiations with Russia. Third, Biden has abandoned the idea of regime change in Russia: if Putin is ready to give up his conquests, he can once again become the interlocutor for a negotiation on European security.
Putin presents America as the intrinsic enemy of Moscow. This is the effect of his paranoia rather than reality.
American support for the Ukrainian revolutionaries of February 2014 is real, but it has more to do with their passion for democracy than with a project to weaken Russia because at that time their strategy has already made its turn to the Asia-Pacific. Historically, America has not thought of itself as an enemy of the Russians for more than thirty years.
In 1994, the United States put pressure on Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons. In March 1999, it saved Russia from bankruptcy. In 2009, they launch the reset, advocating “a strong, peaceful, and prosperous Russia.” In September 2013, the Americans give up bombing Syria, to agree with Russia. In June 2021, in Geneva, the Americans give their nihil obstat to the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline directly linking the Russian and German territories. This is not the attitude of an enemy.
By making war, Putin neglected a much better option for Russia: to accumulate dollars, develop Siberia, and play the role of mediator between China and America.
Some reading
How Could Putin’s Russia Get Around the European Embargo on Its Oil? Russia could be inspired by the methods used by Iran or Venezuela to circumvent the American embargo.
America Will Be the Dominant Power Before China in the Next Thirty Years. Here Is Why. The only pitfall that could prevent this American domination is the political instability into which the country could fall.
Here Is Why Vladimir Putin’s Russia’s Oil Price Cap Doesn’t Sit Well With Experts and Economists. Several experts mention a limited economic effect on Russia and a risk of weakening Western companies.
Here Are the New Global Routes Followed by Russian Oil to Escape Western Sanctions. The number of ship-to-ship transfers has exploded in recent months.
Putin’s Cowardly Bombing of Ukraine Is a Reminder to Anyone Who Doubts the Absolute Necessity of Full Support for Ukraine. The war crimes of Putin’s Russia in Ukraine must not be trivialized.