Watching the War in Ukraine, China Is Learning Lessons and Preparing for Its Invasion of Taiwan.
America and Europe must also start preparing ...
Almost 90 days since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. This war started on February 24, 2022, following Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has surprised China. Not that Xi Jinping and the CCP were not already aware of Putin's plans, but rather in the way America and Europe reacted to the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
China believed that the West would react in the same way as they had reacted to Russia's annexation of Crimea in early 2014.
That reaction was limited at the time to a lot of protests, but very little concrete action. What is happening today is different: the strength of America's and Europe's reactions is forcing China to prepare for the consequences of the planned annexation of Taiwan.
Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, same fight?
For China, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a dress rehearsal for the long-planned annexation of Taiwan. An annexation that will be unavoidable. The question for Xi Jinping is not if, but rather when. And for China, Taiwan would be like Crimea. An annexation that would have raised protests, but no concrete reaction.
This war in Ukraine has changed the whole picture for China. Xi Jinping and the CCP are obliged to review their copy. Not on the substance of course, since the ambition remains the same: Taiwan must be annexed by China. For China, it is clear that Taiwan is China. It is therefore a matter of internal politics in which no external interference is allowed.
But in terms of form, things are now different for China.
China now knows what to expect
Xi Jinping and the CCP now know how America and Europe will react the day their country annexes Taiwan. The reaction will be the same as with Russia. With one difference: China should have no difficulty in invading Taiwan. There will probably not be a war or a stalemate like in Ukraine for Putin's Russian army.
The military component will be virtually non-existent. No arms will be sent and even fewer American troops will be sent to Taiwan. China will, from one day to the next, present the world with a fait accompli.
There will be reactions. China has understood that they will be strong: sanctions. These will be massive. The United States is already preparing these sanctions. But so is China!
China prepares for Western sanctions
China has just announced that it forbids all family members of Chinese officials to own assets abroad. Indeed, these assets could then be confiscated as the assets of Russian oligarchs have been since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.
This will take away one more lever from America and Europe against China.
China is also asking all foreign banks that manage assets for China how they would react in the event of sanctions. In the coming months and years, we will see a gradual transfer of China's assets to more welcoming skies. Finally, there remains only the gigantic problem of China's dollar assets, wherever they may be, including the foreign exchange reserves of the Chinese central bank.
A vast subject that Xi Jinping and the CCP will not be able to solve in only a few years.
Final Thoughts
We know now, from what we have seen in Russia, that massive sanctions against China will paralyze the world economy for several months, even years.
America and Europe are dependent on China in almost every field.
From technology to textiles to the health sector. This is a much larger issue than Russian oil and gas, which is already an insoluble problem for the European Union:
If China is preparing itself, it is logically also the case for Europe and America. To be able to react to the annexation of Taiwan as they reacted to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the countries of the Western bloc will have to find solutions as quickly as possible. This is not easy, as the dependence is so strong.
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