War Between Ukraine and Russia – Here Are the Five Possible Scenarios Now.

One of these scenarios will come true sooner or later.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been underway for 36 days now. At this point, it seems that the situation can likely evolve into five different scenarios: a sham peace agreement, a Ukrainian defeat by attrition, a Russian military collapse before a palace revolution, Vladimir Putin's escalation on the Kremlin's side, or finally a frozen conflict that will last.

In the current state of military dynamics, the last two scenarios seem to be the most likely. Let's review these different scenarios, knowing that one of them will inevitably come true.

A sham peace agreement

First scenario: a negotiated outcome. The most desirable in theory, but not necessarily the most likely, even if the current negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow allow for a “window of opportunity” to stop shooting at each other. The positions of the two protagonists still seem very antagonistic. Kyiv has already made important concessions by renouncing NATO and putting the status of the Donbas and Crimea on the table, a subject that has been taboo until now since it could affect its sovereignty.

But Ukraine is demanding reparations for the destroyed cities and, above all, security guarantees from Washington, London, and Ankara. In short, a quasi-integration into NATO without really being part of it. It would indeed be suicide for Kyiv to sign a truce and be satisfied with a promise from the Kremlin not to start again. Didn't Vladimir Putin shamelessly lie when he swore he would not invade Ukraine?

On the other hand, it is hard to see what reasonable agreement would allow Vladimir Putin to save face. Putin claimed to want to “denazify and demilitarize Ukraine” and to liquidate the “historical aberration” that would be the Ukrainian state, saying he was determined “never to give up his conviction that Russians and Ukrainians are one people”, without forgetting his demand for a retreat of NATO on its pre-1999 perimeter. The Russian president did not take all these risks just to consolidate his hold on the Donbas, which he had controlled for eight years, and to obtain neutrality of Kyiv under the Anglo-Saxon umbrella!

A Ukrainian defeat by attrition

In the absence of a cease-fire, some predict a collapse of the Ukrainian army, psychologically worn out and deprived of fuel and ammunition under the steamroller of the Russian aviation and artillery. Like Mr. Seguin's goat which, despite its courageous resistance, is inexorably devoured by the wolf in the morning. Force would always remain with the one who aligns the most planes, tanks, and guns. A breakthrough of the Russian army, after reorganization and resupply, to cut in two the Ukrainian army at the level of Dnieper, remains possible.

But nothing has happened in this direction for seven weeks. Kyiv is receiving thousands of anti-tank and anti-helicopter missiles from the West, as well as, above all, long-range anti-aircraft batteries which it was lacking. And the Russian army has not succeeded in any offensive since 4 March 2022. It has already lost a quarter of its tanks and helicopters and half as many soldiers in one month as in ten years during the disastrous Afghanistan campaign.

A Russian military collapse before a palace revolution

Thus, the course of operations leads us to consider a third scenario, unthinkable at the beginning of the invasion: it is Mr. Seguin's goat that eats the wolf. Unable to win the slightest battle, the Russian security establishment would do its accounts, let's say at the end of May 2022, because of its diplomatic isolation, economic damage, loss of military prestige, and major geopolitical setbacks. Europe will work hard to do without Russian hydrocarbons and Germany, the Kremlin's key relay of influence has lost its naivety.

A palace revolution would then be necessary ... except that this is not part of the “traditions” in the Kremlin: only one has been carried out successfully for a century, in 1964. Putin has been careful not to allow a possible dolphin to emerge and to surround himself with loyalists who share his complex of persecution of the West.

Vladimir Putin's escalation on the Kremlin's side

With its back to the wall, or even humiliated, the Kremlin could then fall into a headlong rush. A crazy one-upmanship to force the panic-stricken West to let go of Ukraine. It could start with air raids on Sweden, which is not a member of NATO, or even Poland, which is protected by the Alliance or resort to chemical weapons in Ukraine. Or even tactical nuclear missiles (with a power of “only” 10% of Hiroshima), which would force the Ukrainian soldiers to surrender. The Kremlin pretends to think about it, claiming that the war in Ukraine is an “existential issue”.

To brandish such weapons not to deter a foreign invasion, but to prevent an enemy from preventing you from invading a neighbor, would be a doctrinal revolution. How would NATO react, and is it possible to counter a country launching tactical nuclear bombs on a neighbor without entering into a spiral of the apocalypse?

Relax, there are just billions of lives at stake... However, one can take comfort in the fact that such a delusion is unlikely to happen, as the Kremlin would then be a pariah regime, dropped even by China, with economic collapse as a result, and even liable to the International Criminal Court.

A frozen conflict that will last

There remains the last scenario, perhaps the most likely although not entirely satisfactory: the conflict would get bogged down, with the image of Russian tanks on the roadside, with relatively stable fronts, regular but limited clashes, and missiles now mostly intercepted by Kyiv, until the Russian stockpile is exhausted (two-thirds of which has already been used).

A scenario that would see Ukraine nibble away at some of the territories it has lost since February 24, 2022, to a financially strangled Russia that has run out of military solutions. A semi-victory for Kyiv without pushing the Kremlin into a corner and risking to make it “break down”.

The war would turn into one of those “frozen conflicts” that dot Russia's periphery (Transnistria, Georgia, Nagorno-Karabakh). Until the Russian leadership realizes in a year or two that a peace agreement - or the ousting of Vladimir Putin - is inevitable.