Vladimir Putin’s Russia Remains on the Lookout for the Divisions That Are Appearing in Europe.

Europe must remain united behind massive support for Ukraine.

Last week, Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron, and Mario Draghi went to Ukraine to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky. The aim was to reaffirm the support of Germany, France, and Italy to Ukraine which has been fighting for more than 115 days against the aggression of Vladimir Putin's Russian army.

This visit also aimed at announcing the support of these countries for the candidacy of Ukraine for membership in the European Union.

Beyond the symbolism, everyone made a statement. Olaf Scholz first of all:

“Irpin has become the symbol of the unimaginable cruelty of the Russian war ... This war must end.”

Mario Draghi then who is already looking ahead to the post-war period for Ukraine:

“We will rebuild everything.”

This visit was essential to reassure the Ukrainian people, while ambiguous statements by Paris, Berlin, and Rome regarding the conflict had been taken as a mark of support for Vladimir Putin. The three capitals had indeed seemed to outline the contours of a “peace party”, anxious to accelerate the opening of negotiations with Moscow, at the risk of ratifying a partition of Ukraine.

The French president had repeated that it was necessary to avoid “humiliating” Russia, a curious concern that amounted to supporting the logic of force that prevails in the Kremlin.

Will the visit to Zelensky and the promised acceleration of arms deliveries help to restore a blunted confidence, as the declarations of the “peace camp” have raised heavy suspicions in Kyiv and in the “justice camp”, which includes the countries of Eastern Europe and the Scandinavians? Probably not quite. Because, the French, Germans, and Italians, under pressure from public opinion that wants to save their purchasing power, would like to accelerate the end of the war, while Zelensky still thinks of winning it, provided that the West delivered the artillery weapons that his army cruelly lacks.

To understand the growing rift in Europe, one must read the survey that the European Council on Foreign Relations has just carried out, under the direction of political scientists Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev. We discover that, if European opinion has taken up the cause of Ukraine and continues to judge that Russia is the main culprit, a majority of Europeans wish on the other hand a quick exit from the war, even if Ukraine has to sacrifice part of its territories!

“If badly managed, the rift between the peace and justice camps could become as destabilizing as the one between creditor and debtor countries during the euro crisis,” warns Mark Leonard, while Krastev says it is up to European leaders to convince their people to stay the course. The possibility of a gaping hole in solidarity with Ukraine has not escaped the attention of a watching Russia.

While former president Dmitry Medvedev laughed at the “European lovers of frogs, sausages and spaghetti want to visit Kyiv” with “no use”, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recommended not to focus on arms deliveries but to push Ukrainians “to realism”.

This unabashed call for “realism”, which means cynicism, is not insignificant. It aims to mobilize the apostles of realpolitik, numerous in the elites, notably in France, who continue against all odds to trivialize the violent imperial revisionism of Vladimir Putin. In his luminous book on the West and the Ukrainian crisis, “Ukraine vs. Darkness: (Undiplomatic Thoughts)”, Oleksandr Scherba is however clear on this subject.

The appeasement, permanent since 2000, has been a failure. Accepting the dismemberment of Ukraine would be read in Moscow as an admission of immense weakness, opening the way to other aggressions. Europe thinks it is safe “but the bell is tolling for you,” he writes, convinced that “Putin's goal is to destroy the collective West”. It is not insignificant in this respect that three days ago a deputy of the Russian Duma proposed to annul the parliamentary act that recognized Lithuania's independence in 1991.

Final Thoughts

The slightest sign of appeasement towards Vladimir Putin could produce the opposite effect of the one expected: to fan his already voracious appetite by giving him the idea of going even further into Europe.

Under these conditions, European countries must continue to support Ukraine massively, because as Zelensky frequently repeats, Ukraine is not only fighting for its survival, but it is also fighting for freedom and democracy in Europe in the face of the expansionist madness of the one who can now be considered a dictator: Vladimir Putin.