Vladimir Putin’s Hidden Plan With Ukraine

Putin is carrying out a large-scale industrial and agricultural hold-up.

Russia considers Ukraine as its natural space. The regions between the Donbas and the Dnieper are attached to the history of the great counter-offensive of the Red Army, after the victory of Stalingrad and then to the march towards Berlin for the final victory. The ethnic and linguistic argument can also be mobilized, but neither the history books nor the shared language alone explain the Russian war in Ukraine.

The region where the main military effort is focused, in other words, the battlefield map, has a remarkable geo-economic profile. It is the resources of this region that Russia covets. Eastern Ukraine, to the east and around the Dnieper, is a rich area. It is a large steel and mining basin (the 4th largest coal basin in Europe) where integrated steel complexes are concentrated, from the primary resource to the related financial activities. Research has also identified abundant reserves of shale gas since 2015:

From the Donbas basin, with its billions of tons of coal, to the Kryvyï Rih iron deposit (7 billion tons of reserves in 2022), the region is a formidable geological cheese for Putin. The Ukrainian subsoil is rich in manganese, graphite, nickel, copper, and rare earth metals. Russia is also watching with interest the Dnieper hydroelectric power plants and the nuclear power plants, including the one in Zaporijia, which is now under its control.

The pincer movement undertaken by the Russian army leaves no doubt. Putin wants to reintegrate into Russia the useful space of Ukraine. He thus puts his hand on the mineral and industrial wealth of the country and on the fertile plains to the east and south of Dnipropetrovsk. From the Russian border in the north of Ukraine to Berdiansk, there is a long fertile corridor that leads to Crimea, already annexed by Russia.

One may wonder about the psychology of the Russian president, but the map of his small neighbor's wealth juxtaposed with his current plan of conquest reveals his hidden agenda. Putin is reconstituting what history had undone, in particular the break-up of the USSR. Russia also intends to regain control of the ports leading to the South Seas. The major grain loading terminals are located in the southeast of Ukraine, between the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. They are the key to accessing the major grain routes, including those leading to the Mediterranean via the Bosphorus Strait.

Final Thoughts

Here is a summary of the situation: precious resources in the Ukrainian subsoil, large industries, such as iron and aluminum, more than 20% of Europe's arable land, Putin is carrying out a large-scale industrial and agricultural hold-up. He is doing this in defiance of international law with deadly military means.

The European temptation of Ukraine had indeed something to worry about, but Putin has only one opponent, the United States of America. He considers the Americans to have waged colonial economic wars in the Middle East, to have got their hands on Iraq, and to have a conniving relationship with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf petro-monarchies. Ukraine is its natural garden.

Blow for blow, the Russian president believes, but wrongly, that the turpitude of his opponent justifies his own. Whatever Vladimir Putin's real motivations are, the conquest of Ukraine leaves Europe alone to face him. Between the United States, which is almost self-sufficient in energy, and Russia, which is looking for new prosperity, the Europe of the 27 assumes the role of the humanitarian good samaritan.

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