To Become the World's Leading Power, China Must Seek To Inspire and Stop Scaring Others.

China must change its methods.

In terms of recent history, China's rise is one of the most remarkable achievements. Everyone is now aware of this, but the numbers that tell the Chinese story are still impressive. My feeling is that China aims to become the world's leading power ahead of America in the future.

Some will disagree with this judgment, but I don't see how a country that has transformed itself so much over the last few decades to the point of becoming an economic and military superpower could not have this as an ambition. It is the logical next step for China, and everything Xi Jinping does seek to move China closer to that goal.

The numbers the country can put up have not been matched by any other nation:

• Since 1984, China's per capita income has increased 26 times. Hundreds of millions of Chinese have moved from poverty to the middle class.

• Life expectancy has increased by 10 years over the same period.

• People living below the poverty line now represent 1% of the population, compared to 88% at the time.

• Between 1990 and 2018, the U.S. share of world trade fell from 26.4 to 23.9%. China's share went from 1.6 to 15.8%.

• A generation ago, 80% of all countries traded more with the United States than with China. In 2018, China was the largest trading partner for 128 of 190 countries.

• In 1999, China filed 276 patents with the World Intellectual Property Organization. In 2019, that number has grown to nearly 59,000.

• China has four times the population of the United States. If its per capita income were even half that of the United States, it would be twice as large economically.

• Since 2012, China has also contributed more to U.N. peacekeeping forces than the U.S., Britain, France, and Russia (the other 4 members of the U.N. Security Council) combined.

Some people think that China is using the wrong method and does not meet 5 sine qua nons conditions

Hundreds of other figures prove China's rise, and it is a source of pride for its 1.4 billion inhabitants. But the country has no fewer problems than the West: an aging population with a huge demographic challenge ahead, opaque financial markets, and serious internal social and cultural injustices.

Yet, China's becoming a superpower comparable to the United States seems not only close but inevitable. Many even believe that China's current trajectory should allow it to surpass America in the future.

In the face of this infatuation with the Chinese giant, some are calling for vigilance, rather than panic. For these people, China does not meet a series of conditions that are sine qua non to overtake America in the future by becoming the first world superpower. Here are the 5 main ones.

1. Cultural reach

Global power has, by definition, a cultural reach that exceeds the gross tons of its exports. America conquered the world with jeans and Coca-Cola, with Elvis Presley and Marilyn Monroe. A glamorous army of Hollywood stars still resides in the hearts of billions. How many Chinese stars are adored abroad? To sum up, China impresses but does not make waves.

2. A magnet for migrants

The dominant world superpower should be a magnet for migrants. This is far from being the case for China. In the United States, the dissident receives a Pulitzer Prize. In China, he is severely punished. Or to put it in one sentence: China does not export desires, only nightmares.

3. Economic vulnerability

Current growth rates, surprising for a country that recently reported eight percent growth, are suddenly back behind those of the United States. China - as the authoritarian policies against COVID-19 have demonstrated - is economically fragile. It does not have the resilience to shock that Western economies have shown.

4. The Chinese Army is not an asset, but a threat

Unlike the Americans, who are welcome guests in Germany, Poland, France, and elsewhere, the Chinese Red Army is not an asset in the South China Sea, but a threat. The only foreign policy partners are two dictators: Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin. North Korea and Russia are not friends, but powers that cannot survive without China.

5. The world's leading superpower is always based on the power of new ideas

The world's leading superpower always relies on the power of new ideas. Economically, a nation only deserves the title of the world's top superpower if it is the leader in innovation. China, the world's largest emitter of CO2, has certainly made huge strides in biotechnology and the digital economy, and there is now a Chinese version of almost every American business idea. But these are variants, not alternatives.

A thesis previously expressed by Indian-American thinker-entrepreneur Naval Ravikant:

“Whenever people say that China is doing so impressively, 'Look at their rocket launches, look at their economic growth, look at the cities they're building...'

Well, call me when they invent something new. Call me when they have an amazing idea that we haven't had yet. Call me when they develop a technology that we don't have. Because so far, they're just imitations. They are just taking advantage of the technology they got from us and now using it on a large scale because they have more people.

Call me when their GDP per capita exceeds ours. And call me when they develop vaccines, medicines, energy generators, or spaceships that we can't make.

Call me when the authoritarian state manages to develop something new. When they are more creative than we are when their art is better than ours and their technology surpasses ours.

Call me when that happens and free, capitalist society goes under. I've never seen that happen.”

Final Thoughts

Mao Zedong's maxim is that political power comes from the barrel of a gun. But if China wants to become the world's leading superpower, assuming my opinion on the subject is correct, it will have to inspire others, not just scare them. At the moment, this is something China is incapable of doing.

This may change in the future, but we will have to see a strategic shift in the methods of Xi Jinping and the CCP.

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Some reading

• America and China Accuse Each Other of Aggravating the Taiwanese Issue. Taiwan is part of a more global opposition between America and China that extends to the entire Indo-Pacific.

• Watching the War in Ukraine, China Is Learning Lessons and Preparing for Its Invasion of Taiwan. America and Europe must also start preparing …

• The Real Issue of the Confrontation Between America and China on Taiwan Is Written in 4 Letters. China will probably wait until America is no longer dependent on TSMC before acting.