The World Before the COVID-19 Pandemic Is Back, for the Worse.
The world after so idealized seems to be only a utopia.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many had spoken of the world after. A different world, more proactive and optimistic. A world idealized by some for a while. They were quickly disillusioned when they saw that this world after looked more and more like the world before.
In the light of the catastrophe caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we can only observe that this will probably not be the case: this world after may be much worse. The time bomb of the Russian blockade forbidding the export of Ukrainian cereals is proof of this. These cereals are vital for many countries in Africa and the Middle East. Their immobilization also generates tensions on world prices, not to mention those on fertilizers caused by the war.
For weeks now, cries of alarm have been echoing in a vacuum. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is dodging and professing goodwill that belies his determination to wage war, whatever the cost. So much so that, for historian Timothy Snyder, the author of the book “Bloodlands” devoted to the mass crimes perpetrated by Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia in Eastern Europe, there can be no doubt:
“Vladimir Putin is preparing to starve much of the developing world as the next step in his war in Europe.”
Timothy Snyder fears stuttering of history in the use of the food weapon and famine as a lever of annihilation and coercion.
In the face of such a threat, the risks of a generalized “every man for himself” are not negligible. India's decision to stop wheat exports in mid-May 2022 has been analyzed as such, even if the Indian authorities have relativized it by indicating that their country had never been considered, and rightly so, as a major exporter of this cereal, given the weight of its population, which absorbs almost all the national production. Their decision was justified by the vagaries of climate, an exceptional heat wave, which will weigh on yields.
The wear and tear of the happy globalization model
A month earlier, Indonesia had raised the alarm by banning palm oil exports, this time citing domestic shortages that could lead to social tensions. These exports resumed in May 2022. Since then, India has also decided to restrict its sugar exports, of which it is the world's second-largest exporter. Malaysia has taken the same step on chicken exports, much to the dismay of its neighbors.
This series of decisions in the area of food reinforces the specter of a destructive mechanism, reminiscent of the wave of protectionist retrenchments triggered by the economic crisis of 1929. Instead of limiting its effects, it increased them tenfold.
Two years ago, the pandemic had made manifest, with unprecedented brutality and intensity, the perverse effects of globalization, which was at the origin of the deindustrialization of the most developed countries. The wear and tear of this model, stigmatized by antiphrasis as “happy globalization”, had fueled populist and nationalist discourse directed at its victims, praising the virtues of borders, for goods as well as for people, and therefore of customs taxes.
This “corrosion of globalization” was the focus of an article published in March 2022 by Foreign Affairs: “The End of Globalization?”. The author, Adam S. Posen, who heads the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank, argued that the war in Ukraine would strengthen a pro-deglobalization trend, probably for a long time. Since then, everyone has been wondering whether this is a myth or reality, but in any case, it has become the talk of the town, and opinions differ on how to answer this question.
By putting in place all the elements of a world food crisis that was already smoldering under the embers of global warming, the Russian invasion highlights an obvious fact. Like the model it intends to correct, de-globalization is not without equally perverse effects and unwanted consequences. And it is just as unequal, in that it can push the poorest countries to the brink of collapse.
In his article, Adam S. Posen tried to analyze the collateral damage of deglobalization:
“With less economic interconnectedness, the world will experience lower trend growth and less innovation.”
These potential heavy trends can only be reinforced by the mirror phenomenon that Russia's war in Ukraine lays bare: the end of multilateralism.
The bombing of Kyiv by Russian forces amid a visit by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on April 28, 2022, is by far the most humiliating image of this, followed, however, by the silence of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet during her visit to Xinjiang, China, a month later. The ministerial conference of the World Trade Organization underway in Geneva is another illustration of the breakdown of multilateralism, in this case, due to Indian intransigence on fisheries or food security.
In his book “The Jungle Grows Back: America and Our Imperiled World”, published in 2018, the prolific writer and thinker Robert Kagan argued that the continuous progress achieved by the post-World War II U.S. world order (seen by its critics as an instrument of American domination) has been a remarkable exception in generally tragic and cyclical world history.
De-globalization and the end of multilateralism could mean its end, with the consequence of the return of blocs ignoring norms other than their own and, therefore, the return of the jungle. Everyone knows what the soothing canopy contemplated from above can hide from the frightening reality of the jungle.
Some reading
The Era of Happy Globalization Is Over. Welcome to the Era of High-Cost Globalization. Companies and consumers will have to pay the price.
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