The United States, a Reaffirmed World Superpower, Is More Than Ever Fractured Internally.
Joe Biden must remake the United States into a nation that guarantees a life of dignity and security for all its citizens.
The United States enters the mid-term elections of Joe Biden's presidency in a very paradoxical situation. The change of era brought about by Russia's invasion of Ukraine has strengthened its power and influence in the world. But the drop in life expectancy is evidence of a deepening crisis in American society and democracy.
Overshadowed by the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the Biden Administration's start has been hesitant, to say the least. The priority given to the containment of China was telescoped by the rout in Afghanistan in August 2021, and then by the psychodrama of the creation of the AUKUS, which sowed discord among the allies.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a complete turnaround, making the United States the big winner in the new economic and strategic order. The aggression stunned the Europeans and made them aware of the reality of Vladimir Putin's dictatorship. Stunned and disarmed, the only option open to them is the security guarantee of the United States. The United States has provided Ukraine with more than $14.5B in military aid and intelligence capabilities, which largely explains both the failure of the Russian blitz attempt and the remarkable September 2022 counteroffensive on Kharkiv.
The Americans have re-engaged on the European continent, deploying more than 120,000 troops. NATO has expanded to include Sweden and Finland and is fielding 300,000 troops in a forward defense against Russia. Renewal also prevails in Asia, where the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to defend Taiwan against an attack by China and where its allies, led by Japan, are rearming and strengthening their ties with America.
The commitment to a confrontation between authoritarian empires and democracies and the return of high-intensity warfare have thus made the U.S. security guarantee valuable. Backed by a military budget of $813B in 2022, it makes the United States the natural leader of a new alliance of free nations across the Atlantic and Pacific.
Putin's war in Ukraine is also strengthening America's economic power. Instantly, the economy is experiencing a technical recession due to the increase in interest rates decided by the Fed to break inflation, which is reaching 8.5% per year. For the time being, however, full employment is resisting, with the unemployment rate limited to 3.7% of the active population.
At the same time, the dollar is appreciating, regaining its role as a safe haven in times of war, and capital is flowing to Wall Street. At a time when China is facing the end of its “forty glorious years” and is seeing activity stagnate due to Xi Jinping's zero-COVID strategy, which is disrupting production and blocking domestic demand, the real estate crash, and climate change, the United States is once again becoming the locomotive of the world economy.
However, the restoration of the power of the United States is being hampered by the acceleration of its domestic crisis.
The polarization of opinion and the near civil war that is undermining the nation are rooted in demographics, which highlight the pathologies of society. Life expectancy has been falling for three years. It has regressed from 78.7 years at the end of 2019 to 76.1 years at the end of 2021, while it is 77 years in China. It is reduced to 79.1 years for women and 73.2 years for men, compared to 85.4 years and 79.3 years respectively in France.
While all developed countries have seen their life expectancy reduced by a few months by the COVID-19 epidemic, the United States is an exception because of the magnitude of the decline and its long-term nature, which point to multiple causes. The pandemic accounts for half of the excess mortality. It caused 1.05 million deaths - a scandalous toll for a country that spends 17% of its GDP on health care - and continues to claim victims.
Three other factors are decisive:
Skyrocketing wealth and income inequality.
The opioid crisis, which caused 109,000 overdose deaths in 2021.
Finally, the circulation of some 400 million firearms in the civilian population, which are responsible for 45,010 deaths, including 20,920 homicides.
The lasting decrease in life expectancy destabilizes the American model. It is incompatible both with the democratic promise of security, prosperity, and equality for citizens and with the perennial restoration of the power of the United States. It explains the swing towards populism of a large part of the American people.
Joe Biden, well helped by Vladimir Putin, has restored a large part of the power and credit of the United States in the world that Donald Trump had ruined. Now he has to fulfill the mandate he received from the Americans in 2020: to make the United States a nation that guarantees a dignified and safe life for all its citizens.
A challenge that is far from obvious given the fractures that divide American society.
Some reading
The Rout of the Pound Revives the Worst Hours of Brexit. Many are already calling for Kwasi Kwarteng’s resignation to save the pound.
U.S. Railroad Employees Wages Raised by 24% — Symbol of the Revival of Unionism in America. A historic success, which will be followed by others in the future.
5 Key Questions for the Midterms. Inflation or Democracy? What will the Americans prefer on November 8, 2022?
Vladimir Putin’s Distrust of the West Comes From Very Far Away. The most worrying thing is that it now seems unmovable.
Joe Biden Wants to Believe That the Midterms Will Not Be As Favorable to the Republicans As Expected. The events of the past few weeks have once again made the president audible to Americans.