The Time for Negotiation in Ukraine Has Not Come. Those in the West Who Call for Negotiations Are Playing Into Putin’s Hands.
Stronger on the military ground, Ukraine has no interest in negotiating.
It is a little music, nagging and insidious, that has been rising for a few weeks in the Western camp: the Russian-Ukrainian war has gone on long enough, it is time to negotiate. Let's not give any more “blank checks” to Ukraine, asserted the Republican congressman Kevin McCarthy, on October 18, 2022. “We urge you to make vigorous diplomatic efforts,” wrote to Joe Biden, six days later, some thirty Democratic deputies, even suggested (before retracting) that he ease the sanctions to encourage Putin to negotiate!
In France too, voices are being heard. In the wake of Emmanuel Macron who, in Brussels on October 21, 2022, hopes for negotiations “as soon as possible,” the debate is raging in the Senate. Let's not abandon “the demand for a ceasefire as soon as possible on the front,” asks a Communist deputy, on October 26, 2022, while his colleague from the right proposes to go “from a ceasefire to a truce, and from a truce to the opening of peace negotiations to avoid the escalation of terror.”
Fear of a lasting recession, energy crisis, extension of the conflict to NATO countries, not to mention the nuclear risk ... All these arguments, legitimate if a little selfish, nevertheless hide a central question: does talking about stopping the fighting make sense today?
For many military and geopolitical experts, it is clear that we are still in a time of war. And it is not the chancelleries that will decide on peace, but the battlefield. For, to end a war, there must, in principle, be two conditions: a vanquished who accepts the fate of arms and a victor who agrees to negotiate with him. We are far from it.
Although his army, defeated in Kyiv and then in Kharkiv, has been unable to regain the slightest inch of ground since the summer of 2022, Vladimir Putin still thinks he can win, observes Branislav Slantchev, a political scientist at the University of San Diego: “He is in the process of gathering new troops in the Lugansk region and has not deviated from his initial objectives. It doesn't matter that he has no chance of success, he believes in it.”
On the other side, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's troops are continuing their reconquest. In the south, they are approaching the strategic city of Kherson, the loss of which would be a very hard blow to the Russians. And then? What choice - if not to continue - do the Ukrainians have faced with an enemy that wants to exterminate them?
This is evidenced by these hallucinating words, published on June 7, 2022, by Dmitri Medvedev, the former Russian president: “They are bastards and degenerates. As long as I am alive, I will do everything I can to make them disappear.” It is believed that an apocalyptic delirium is taking hold of a part of the Russian leaders, as at the end of the Third German Reich.
At this stage, any negotiation is therefore excluded and nothing gives hope that it can take place shortly. The Ukrainian president will never talk to his enemy as long as he has not recovered the Ukrainian territories that have passed under Russian control. He has no interest in doing so anyway. He has the advantage on the ground. To stop the offensive would mean freezing the positions and, therefore, conceding losses of territory. The Ukrainian people will never accept this. On the other hand, the Russian president is quite happy to say that he is ready to negotiate, he has everything to gain!
Far from a cease-fire, everything leads us to fear, on the contrary, a hardening. If he continues to lose ground, Vladimir Putin will have no choice but to continue his headlong rush, because he would hardly survive a total rout. There is no example in Russian history of a big defeat that did not lead to a regime change. There is no reason why Putin's regime should be an exception.
In his book “War and Punishment,” Hein Goemans, a researcher at the University of Rochester, links the profile of leaders to how they emerge from conflict. The most dangerous leaders, he says, are the “hardliners,” who know that if they lose, internal forces will cause their downfall.
At the outset of World War I, German Kaiser Wilhelm II realized that he could not win the war. Nevertheless, German Kaiser Wilhelm II fought for four years because he knew that he would be overthrown if he backed down. Does Putin feel threatened? It is difficult to say, as the Russian power is opaque. But he is still far from having lost. On the other hand, the Ukrainians are doomed to victory.
The time of war is therefore not close to ending. And the current calls for negotiation are especially good for the head of the Kremlin, who sees in them the perfect opportunity to divide the hated West.
Some reading
Olaf Scholz’s Germany Is Opting for Business As Usual With Xi Jinping’s China at the Risk of Dividing Europe. What is Germany playing at?
Winter Will Change the Rules of the War in Ukraine. The Ukrainians Are Better Equipped Than the Russians to Take Advantage of General Winter. The low morale of Russian soldiers and their poor equipment will be a major handicap.
Here Is Why the Battle of Kherson Will Be the Critical Turning Point in Putin’s War in Ukraine. Putin could probably not survive a defeat of the Russian forces in Kherson.
The 4 Questions That the Return of Putin’s Russia in the Agreement on Ukrainian Grain Exports Raise. How long before Russia finds a new pretext to get out?
Chinese Employees Defy the Ban to Escape From Their Confined iPhone Factory Because of COVID-19. These employees were willing to do anything to avoid being confined within the Foxconn factory in Zhengzhou.