The Six Challenges Facing Xi Jinping in His 3rd Term After the CCP Congress.
#2: Waves of COVID-19 with growing protests.
The 20th Congress of the CCP, which was held in Beijing, did not give birth to a surprise. Xi Jinping has been confirmed for a third term as head of China. The one who could be the leader of China for life will however have to face new challenges for this third mandate.
Between the growing anger of the Chinese population because of his repressive zero-COVID policy and the Chinese economic model which is running out of steam, here are the 6 challenges that await Xi Jinping for his third term as the head of China.
1. Taiwan's status
The Chinese president has made reunification with Taiwan a priority for several years, multiplying threats to use force if necessary. The latest was on October 16, 2022, during his speech at the opening of the Communist Party Congress. Xi Jinping said that China was working “with the utmost sincerity and effort for the peaceful reunification of Taiwan but would never give up the use of force and reserved the right to take any necessary measures.”
The situation is souring China's relationship with the United States. U.S. President Joe Biden assured in September 2022 that Washington would defend Taiwan “if an attack were to occur.” Beijing had viewed this position as a “serious violation of the United States' important commitment not to support Taiwan's independence.”
While Xi Jinping did not explicitly mention Washington in his recent speech, he did refer to it when he said he opposed “any form of hegemonism, interference in the internal affairs of other countries.” The situation could become tenser in the coming weeks, especially if Beijing decides to invade the island militarily, as the Taiwanese increasingly fear.
2. Waves of COVID-19 with growing protests
Xi Jinping has persisted since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to apply a zero-tolerance policy, orchestrated with massive surveillance of citizens (registration of movements) and coercive measures (imposed PCR tests, strict isolation, heavy penalties in case of non-compliance with the containment...).
The Chinese leader congratulated himself at the party congress, saying he had “protected the safety and health of the people to the utmost and achieved significant positive results by coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic with economic and social development.”
However, in addition to a blow to the country's economic growth, this authoritarian strategy has led to strong discontent. In April 2022, while the authorities were still struggling to stem a wave of the Omicron variant with repeated confinements, protests mounted, first on social networks, then in the streets. On the eve of the Chinese Communist Party Congress, a banner hanging from a Beijing bridge even called on citizens to go on strike and oust “the traitorous dictator Xi Jinping.”
3. China's fight against global warming
China is the world's biggest polluter and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. It faces significant drought and pollution problems on its soil, which impact public health. At the same time, China is also a world champion of renewable energy. In the last ten years, it has become the world's leading investor in wind and solar energy.
In March 2021, Beijing promised to increase the share of renewable energy used in the country to 25% by 2025 and aims to be carbon neutral by 2060.
Despite the suspension of its cooperation with the United States in the fight against global warming on August 1, 2022, Xi Jinping reaffirmed his ecological objectives at the opening of the Chinese Communist Party Congress. “We will actively participate in global governance on climate change,” he said.
However, China remains highly dependent on fossil fuels and is not about to give them up. Beijing announced in April 2022 that China's coal production would increase by an additional 300 million tons in the current year. A contradiction pointed out by many international observers.
4. A delicate position for China between Russia and Ukraine
China being a historical ally of Russia and one of the main trading partners of the West, Xi Jinping has long maintained an ambiguous posture towards the annexation of part of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin's troops.
On March 7, 2022, the Chinese leader assured that the friendship between Beijing and Moscow was “rock solid” and he has long held an ambivalent posture: no direct support to Russia, but no condemnation of the invasion either.
On September 21, 2022, Beijing came out of its reserve by calling on Russia to call a cease-fire. A few days later, at the UN General Assembly, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on “all parties concerned to prevent the crisis from boiling over.” “The priority is to facilitate peace negotiations,” he insisted, calling for “fair and pragmatic discussions for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.”
The Chinese minister met in New York with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kouleba, assuring him that Beijing was calling for respect for “the territorial integrity of all countries.”
5. The persecution of the Uyghurs
The Uyghurs, a Muslim minority in China, are suffering abuses in the northwestern province of Xinjiang. On May 24, 2022, a consortium of media published damning documents for the Chinese government, a few months before the publication of a UN report denouncing, among the atrocities committed, arbitrary detentions, acts of torture, and forced abortions.
The organization, which denounces possible “crimes against humanity,” has asked for “urgent” attention from the international community on this issue.
China could be summoned to explain itself and to stop these exactions which place it under the critical fires of numerous non-governmental organizations working for human rights.
6. An economic model that needs to be reinvented
For the first time in 30 years, China's growth is lower than that of the rest of Asia. This is the result of several factors. Xi Jinping's inflexible zero-COVID policy is no stranger to this, as is the CCP's takeover of the tech sector. Everything indicates that the growth model of the Chinese economy has run out of steam.
With foreign companies increasingly preferring to leave China for countries considered more politically secure in Southeast Asia or Latin America, Xi Jinping will have to find a new growth model.
He is taking this very seriously because China's economic performance is directly linked to the maintenance of social peace in China. Time is running out as a major real estate crisis looms over the country.
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