The Nuclear Weapon Remains the Last Joker of Vladimir Putin Who Is More Weakened Than Ever.
To brandish nuclear weapons indiscriminately is a terrible admission of weakness on the part of Putin.
Put under pressure by the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensives, more than ever challenged internally in Russia, and progressively disavowed by his Asian allies, Vladimir Putin is now like a wounded animal.
In any case, this is how he has just reacted. Vladimir Putin has indeed just brandished again the supreme threat, the most frightening one, that of nuclear weapons. “We will use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” warned the Russian president, using, as usual, the principle of reverse accusation.
To obtain Kyiv's surrender and to stop Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, the Kremlin has chosen escalation and the nuclear option.
This week will either be “the antechamber of our imminent victory,” or “nuclear war,” said Margarita Simonian, head of the pro-Kremlin Russia Today television on Twitter. Ukraine is not the only country targeted. The West is as well.
“We are not going to kill everyone. But we can kill many people in many countries ... We are ready to use nuclear weapons against Western countries, against the United Kingdom,” warned Sergei Markov, a former adviser to Vladimir Putin. The warning, in the form of an ultimatum for Ukraine and the West, is based, in Russian logic, on a legal framework.
To react to his military failures in Eastern Ukraine and to prepare for the counter-attack, Vladimir Putin has decided to organize “referendums” of annexation in Eastern Ukraine, from 23 to 27 September 2022. The aim is to make four Ukrainian regions coveted by Moscow Russian, following the example of what the Kremlin had done in March 2014 with Crimea.
The nuclear doctrine provides for the possible use of the bomb in case of an attack on Russian territory, the continuation of the Ukrainian offensive in the region could, according to the Kremlin, create a sufficient pretext to use a tactical nuclear weapon. “This is not a bluff,” Vladimir Putin made clear in his speech on Wednesday 21 September 2022.
We are not there yet. Firstly, because Crimea, officially considered by the Kremlin as a territory of the Russian Federation since its annexation in 2014, has been attacked several times by the Ukrainian armed forces since February 2022, without any nuclear reaction from Moscow. Moreover, this is not the first time Vladimir Putin has used the nuclear threat in such a context. If the West had tried to oppose the annexation of Crimea, he would have been ready to defend it using the nuclear army, he had said.
“Irresponsible rhetoric” for America
The United States “takes seriously” Vladimir Putin's threats. A spokesman for the National Security Council denounced “irresponsible rhetoric from a nuclear power.” For all that, U.S. intelligence, which has been keeping a very close eye on possible movements of Russia's nuclear arsenal since the war in Ukraine began, is not sounding the alarm.
“We are monitoring their strategic posture as best we can so that we can change ours if necessary. There is nothing to say at the moment that this is necessary,” he continued.
Vladimir Putin knows that he would be exposing himself to an automatic and large-scale response from the West if he ventured down this dangerous nuclear path. China has probably also warned him of the high cost he would pay if he crossed the red line. Yesterday, China's foreign minister added another layer by stating, as a warning, that “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be respected.”
Even if it reveals Vladimir Putin's weakness, the nuclear threat is nevertheless taken seriously by the major capitals. For if he is afraid of losing his power, a dictator can always be tempted by a desperate act. In any case, the new statements of the Russian president open a new phase in Putin's war in Ukraine.
Some reading
Russia’s Military Weakness Fosters the Return of Conflicts in the Post-Soviet Space. Moscow is overwhelmed by the clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Xi Jinping’s China Increases the Use of Economic Coercion. The list of taboo topics for the CCP continues to grow.
Today, the World Is More Than Ever in the Grip of Famine. The great famines of the past centuries came from climatic or military shocks.
Birds of a Feather Flock Together — Pariah of Global Finance, Afghanistan Turns to Russia. Not sure if Russia has enough to help the Taliban though.
What Is Happening in Pakistan Is a Warning to All of Humanity. Climate change requires global awareness and a change of mentality.
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