The Initial Sacred Union Is Giving Way to Increasingly Divided Europeans on the War in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin is betting that the Europeans will drop Ukraine in this war of attrition.
The break between European countries and Russia, held largely responsible for the aggression against Ukraine, is complete. But beyond this consensus, public opinion is beginning to diverge on whether or not to continue the efforts made by their respective countries to support Kyiv. And the divisions within the European Union between hawks, in favor of a hard line against Moscow, and doves, in favor of a negotiated peace as soon as possible, could eventually paralyze Europe on the international scene.
After more than three months of conflict, two antagonistic camps seem to be emerging across Europe, according to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) of 8,000 citizens from nine EU countries and the United Kingdom published Wednesday, June 15, 2022.
Predominantly, the pacifist group (35%), particularly represented in Italy and Germany, wants a quick end to the war, even at the cost of territorial concessions for Ukraine. These pacifists are opposed to the group of Europeans who favor justice (22%) and the territorial integrity of the country. The latter, notably embodied by the Poles, believe that only a clear defeat of Moscow will signal the end of the war and that in the long run Russia must be punished and held responsible for possible war crimes. A fifth of Europeans oscillate between the two camps: hostile to Russia and in favor of a hard-line policy towards it, they also fear the effects of a long war. Finally, 23% of those questioned did not make up their minds:
These cleavages across most European countries could, in time, impose themselves on political leaders, putting an end to the unity observed since the beginning of the conflict, the think tank analyzes in its survey:
“The resilience of European democracies will mostly depend on the capacity of governments to sustain public support for policies that will ultimately bring pain to different social groups.”
Fear of consequences grows in Europe
In many countries, the fear of the consequences of a long conflict on purchasing power and energy prices (fears shared by the Germans, French, and Italians) is put forward. The Swedes, the British, the Poles, and the Romanians, on the other hand, are more concerned about Russia's nuclear threats.
Echoing the fears expressed on 23 May 2022 at the Davos Economic Forum by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was worried that “the world is getting tired of war”, some Europeans feel a form of “fatigue”. Forty-two percent now feel that their country is "doing too much" towards Ukraine, to the detriment of domestic problems (as opposed to 32% who feel the opposite). In this respect, Poland and Romania come out on top (58% and 52%). Only Portugal, the United Kingdom, Finland, and Sweden do not share this opinion.
In many European countries, the survey points out, "the Ukrainian cause could therefore move from an attempt at national unification to a divisive political issue. And, at the European level, hawkish countries, such as Poland, which at the beginning of the war gained more power within the EU, could eventually find themselves marginalized.
Faced with the efforts required to help Ukraine, a part of public opinion also clashes with the policies decided by their leaders. While Europeans want to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and oil, even at the cost of a setback on the objectives linked to the energy transition (in line with decisions taken at the European level), a majority of them (62%) agree to cut ties with Russia mainly on the economic level, 38% are opposed to an increase in military spending (against 32% who say they are in favor). And, contrary to their leaders, who want to see the conflict as an opportunity to demonstrate Europe's strength, a majority of Europeans (55%) seem to consider that the EU will suffer from the war, while it will have no impact on the United States or China.
Italians stand out
The pacifists are also notable for their refusal to see Ukraine join NATO (40% against, 37% for), while 71% of supporters of the justice camp are in favor. Similarly, the peace camp is opposed to sending troops to Ukraine, unlike the justice camp, which would support such an initiative.
On several points, the Italians differ from their neighbors. The Peninsula is the only EU member to have a majority opposed to sending arms to Ukraine (45% against, 33% for) and the most opposed (63%) to an increase in the military budget, even though their leader, Mario Draghi, remains one of the strongest supporters of a hard-line concerning Moscow.
Italians are also the only ones who want to maintain cultural ties with Moscow. They are the most numerous (20%) to consider that the United States is mainly responsible for the war and to think that Ukraine, the EU, or the United States are an obstacle as important to peace as Russia (35% against 39%):
This opinion is also shared by 23% of the French, compared to 17% of all Europeans, 5% of Finns, and 8% of the British.
France is also at the bottom of the table, along with Poland and Romania, in terms of its level of support for welcoming refugees (67% of the French are in favor, compared to 76% for the Germans, 83% for the Spanish and 91% for the Finns). But the reasons for this relative reluctance differ from country to country, according to the authors. Poland and Romania have already faced an influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees, while the reluctance of the French is explained more by the “toxicity of the country's migration policy”. Only 13% of Europeans consider refugees arriving in their countries to be one of the problems inherent in this conflict.
Final Thoughts
The results of this study unfortunately seem to support Vladimir Putin's strategy. He thinks that the European population will eventually tire of this war in Ukraine and will ask their leaders to limit their support to Ukraine to shorten this war. Putin thinks that a war of attrition will benefit his country.
Putin is betting that the cohesion of the European countries will crumble over time because he believes that the European people will not be able to accept paying the price of the consequences of this war as long as the Russian people, whom he considers more resilient.
Only time will tell if Putin's strategy is the right one, but what is certain is that the European people will have to continue to show solidarity and unity behind Ukraine so that the latter can hope for an outcome in its favor in this war against Putin's Russia.
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