The Enlargement of NATO To Include Sweden and Finland Is Another Setback for Vladimir Putin.
Putin wanted the sort of the Finlandization of NATO. He got the NATO-ization of Finland, instead.
Let's start with a well-known metaphor of military origin particularly well adapted to the current situation:
“Shoot yourself in the foot.”
This metaphor seems to me to describe perfectly the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine by Putin's Russia after NATO decided on June 28, 2022, to enlarge its membership by welcoming Sweden and Finland. Two traditionally neutral countries, so much so that the latter had given its name to the concept of a non-independent foreign policy, Finlandization, since its invasion by the USSR in 1939.
As the American president Joe Biden summed it up:
“Putin wanted the sort of the Finlandization of NATO. He got the NATO-ization of Finland, instead.”
A serious setback that can be measured by another element: Vladimir Putin considered it intolerable that Ukraine enters NATO because it would have provided the Atlantic Alliance with a land border of 1.580 km with his country. With the entry of Sweden and Finland, with their modern armies, NATO has an additional 1,340 km of land border with Russia. Not to mention the capabilities of these two countries to deny access to the Baltic Sea, one of Russia's only three maritime outlets.
Turkey got what it wanted and finally agreed
After pretending, to save face, not to object to the entry of these two countries into NATO, the Kremlin estimated, on June 30, 2022, that this enlargement was “deeply destabilizing”. Putin pretends to forget that he is the main destabilizing element in the region and even in the world at the moment.
This enlargement was necessary for the eyes of Sweden and Finland, whose public opinion shifted dramatically after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Support for membership, which had hovered around 20% for twenty years, rose to 60% in Sweden and 75% in Finland.
In April 2022, the two Scandinavian countries abandoned almost a century of neutrality and asked to join the Atlantic Alliance, based on the fact that no NATO country has ever seen Russian soldiers penetrate its territory, unlike Georgia, in 2008, Moldova, in 1993, and now Ukraine. NATO also benefits geopolitically by consolidating its northern flank, since the Alliance only had two Arctic countries, Iceland and Norway.
This enlargement was, however, difficult to achieve because Turkey blocked the process, in a transactional logic, the right of veto that the 30 members of the Alliance have, giving it the power to extract concessions. Erdogan demanded that Sweden stop harboring Kurds from the PKK and the YPG, organizations that Turkey considers terrorists, and suspend its embargo on arms sales, which it suffers because of its intervention against the Kurds. It won its case on this last point on June 28, 2022, before giving its agreement.
The two Scandinavian countries have also promised to cooperate with Ankara on terrorism. “We have not given in to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” Swedish diplomatic chief Ann Linde said on June 29, 2022, stressing that any extraditions would only be made on proof of terrorist activity.
Turkey also wanted Washington to help it modernize its fleet of 250 F16 fighters. Although the White House had considered, in May 2022, that such modernization was in the interests of “collective security”, nothing has been announced on this point. Washington stressed that the Turkish green light had been obtained without "any concession" on its part.
A clear political display on the part of Joe Biden. However, don't be surprised in the coming weeks and months if Turkey and America announce that they have reached an agreement for the sale of American F-35 fighters. This is how it happens in international relations: everyone defends their interests and seeks compensation.
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Watching the postmenopausal witch that masquerades as the PM of Sweden's CNN interview I am convinced that she is gaslighting;and, far more importantly, Erdogan knows she is gaslighting and this deal will not come to fruition, although I bet Lockheed gets to sell the fighters to Turkey. The Obiden Junta will pay any price to save face prior to November. Regarding Erdogan's ambitions to absorb Syria, that could well change the equation, but balance that scenario with a Russian alliance with Orthodox Greece. Could make for an interesting play? Could it be possible that Mass will once again be celebrated in the Hagia Sophia? It took 700 years to return the bells to the Seville Cathedral, but then it's hard to imagine that Putin is as well guided as St.Fernando II.