The End of Globalization Is a Unique Opportunity for Europe.

Will Europe be able to seize its opportunity and take advantage of the tremendous power that its economy can give it?

In the March 2022 edition of his annual letter to shareholders, Larry Fink, chairman of BlackRock, pointed out that “Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the end of the globalization we've seen over the past 30 years”. If these words are perfectly true, these last hundred days are only the most recent episode in a much older process of withdrawal. First political, as the success of the retractive speeches over the last few years attests, then truly economic, through the catalyst of the Covid-19, and finally geopolitical and informational, which we have been witnessing since February 24, 2022.

The embargo on Russian energy, the stoppage of production lines due to the latest massive confinements in China, and the disruption of harvests in Ukraine are directly reflected in the West in the prices charged, or even in the simple availability of products, whether they are basic foodstuffs or the latest smartphones.

The frustration has become intolerable to the consumer-voter. It then appeared necessary to massively stipend him at the expense of any budgetary logic, thus revealing that the economic pain remains the heaviest punishment that can be inflicted on our populations - if we except a war directly suffered on our territory.

If the rupture with the Russian economy, however the very example of a low value-added rent economy, causes such difficulties to the West, we must also note that conversely the economic sanctions aiming at depriving the Russian economy of our manufactured goods and our financing circuits only imperfectly achieve the desired objectives. This is all the more distressing given that the European economy as a whole is a formidable power, not only vis-à-vis Russia but also vis-à-vis the American and Chinese economies.

Moreover, in the unfortunately realistic hypothesis of a military operation by China against Taiwan, a reaction constituted by an arsenal of sanctions, however ferocious, seems to be of hazardous effectiveness, given the sophistication of the Chinese productive apparatus, our commercial dependence on its market and the depth of the financial reserves that it has accumulated primarily through our imports.

Would Europe then be condemned to being a senescent “Paper Tiger”?

Fortunately, there are a few elements that give cause for optimism and, above all, can constitute new assets. First of all, it should be remembered that Europe has an industrial apparatus that is much more solid and innovative than the lamentations of the theorists of decline. But Europe's major strategic strength may lie beyond that, and we are in the process of realizing this.

We are suddenly aware of the new advantages of short chains, in a context of supply difficulties, of an industry that consumes less in the face of rising commodity prices, and of good governance that guarantees the sustainability of companies. This is how mastering the issues surrounding social and environmental responsibility becomes, beyond a duty towards future generations, a real and major competitive advantage in the present time.

There is undoubtedly a major interest in identifying the strategic sectors in which its progress and industrial power will constitute a real economic deterrent (and, if necessary, a counterpart to negotiations with adversaries), but what can it be, basically, without ensuring its sustainability in a constrained world?

Can we also bet that the end of globalization is an opportunity for Europe?

It is only an opportunity, that is to say, the possibility of taking advantage of it, and there are many pitfalls on the road to regaining strategic sovereignty. With its real industrial assets, but above all its know-how in the field of sustainability, and now moving forward with its eyes opened to the economic doctrines of the good old days, there is no reason why our continent cannot truly be the world power and the power of peace that its founders had hoped for.