Taiwan Is Strengthening Its Military Defense in the Face of Pressure From Xi Jinping and the CCP.
Taiwan's military budget is expected to reach $19.4 billion in 2023.
Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan at the beginning of August 2022 had the effect of reinforcing tensions between Xi Jinping's China and Taiwan more than ever. While the Chinese military's show of force in the days following Nancy Pelosi's visit was primarily intended to distract the Chinese people from China's real internal problems, Taiwan nonetheless took the warning very seriously.
Faced with the Chinese military threat, Taiwan has decided to strengthen its defenses.
The government of President Tsai Ing-wen proposed, on August 25, 2022, to increase military spending by nearly 14% in 2023. The 2023 defense budget, if approved by parliament, would increase to 397.4 billion Taiwan dollars ($13.2 billion), with additional funds to acquire fighter jets and other military equipment.
In total, the program would bring military spending to a record high of 586.3 billion Taiwan dollars ($19.4 billion). This is the sixth consecutive annual increase in the military budget, but the first time it has risen so sharply. This sharp acceleration is driven by rising tensions and awareness of the issue. The real question here is whether it will be enough.
The gap with China is widening inexorably
In early August 2022, the Chinese army carried out exercises on an unprecedented scale around Taiwan following the visit to Taipei of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, who said she wanted to show US support for the island.
The rumblings have intensified under President Xi Jinping, who does not rule out the use of force to bring Taiwan back into his fold. This reunification has become one of the conditions for the “rebirth of the Chinese nation” which is supposed to take place before 2049, the date of the hundredth anniversary of the People's Republic of China.
Although Taiwan has increased its defense budget, the gap with the Chinese forces is widening rapidly. In 1995, China's defense budget was only twice that of Taiwan's. Today, the former spends about 20 times more than the latter. But what would the United States decide if China were to attack?
“The United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo and challenge peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” President Joe Biden said in a recent tense phone exchange with Xi Jinping.
With its fleet now one of the largest in the world, Beijing is flexing its muscles to try to dissuade Washington from intervening in the region. The United States is strengthening its alliances and presence in the Indo-Pacific, maintaining a precarious balance between the two superpowers.
The war in Ukraine has also allowed America to return to the forefront of the world stage by reasserting its leadership while strengthening its hold on Europe, which will now be fully on America's side in the event of armed conflict between America and China in the Indo-Pacific in the future.
Taiwan's “porcupine” strategy will not be enough
In Taiwan, the debate over the best defense strategy to adopt has been reignited by the war in Ukraine. The resistance capacity of the Ukrainian army has strengthened the supporters of the so-called “porcupine” strategy, a technique designating the efforts made by a small army that tries to defend itself against a more powerful adversary, with lighter weapons than those of the attacker (missiles, drones, etc.).
But the latest Chinese maneuvers give credibility to a scenario of blockade of the island, which requires more robust defense capabilities to avoid being strangled: large ships, submarines, a greater number of 4th and 5th generation aircraft, and means of attacking targets located on the mainland. This debate is heated in Taiwan but also involves the United States.
The eventual war against Xi Jinping's powerful China is bound to be asymmetrical, and Taiwan will have to hold out as long as the United States stays out of the way.
Some reading
Don’t Be Fooled, Nobody Has an Interest in a War in Taiwan, Neither China nor America. The reasons are different, but both giants will do everything to preserve the current status quo.
Xi Jinping Must Face the Grumbling of Chinese Ultranationalists Who Find Him Too Soft. Their message: “With Putin, we would have already hit Taiwan”.
Nancy Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Reignites the China-America Semiconductor War. TSMC is at the heart of all covetousness.