Samarkand – Westminster: The Summary of the Geopolitical Evolution of the World.
The values of freedom and democracy of the Western world have not said their last word.
In the last few days, everyone has seen a juxtaposition of two cities that appear to be a summary of the geopolitical evolution of the world. On the one hand, Western leaders passing through Westminster, one of the most important places in the spiritual and political history of the United Kingdom, and on the other hand, Eurasian leaders gathered in Samarkand, one of the oldest cities on the Silk Road, now the capital of a province of Uzbekistan.
It is in Samarkand that the annual meeting of the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has just been held. And it is in Westminster Abbey (and under the eyes of the whole world) that the solemn funeral of Queen Elizabeth II is taking place.
But beyond the homage of a people to its sovereign, there is the small democratic miracle that constitutes, on a world scale, this double transition, quiet and peaceful: a new king and a new Prime Minister, and all this “at the same time”, in peace, if not absolute serenity as far as the new tenant of 10 Downing Street is concerned.
The temptation would be great to pit the future - the Shanghai Cooperation Organization created in 2001 - against the past, the funeral of the Queen of England.
On the one hand, the shift of the world's center of gravity to Asia, and on the other, the sentimental manifestation of an emotion that is certainly globalized, but that cannot mask the decline of Great Britain, Europe, and, beyond that, perhaps, of the Western world.
Yet the reality is more complex.
The OCS struggles to hide its ambiguities. How to describe it indeed? Is it a simple Asian club of resistance to the West, under the aegis of China, in which countries as diverse as Russia, Iran, India, and Pakistan are represented? Turkey's President Erdogan is a guest. But within the SCO, a country like India sees it above all as a modernized reaffirmation of the non-aligned movement.
Anti-West or neutrality: this contradiction has deepened since the beginning of Russia's unfortunate military adventure against Ukraine. Distancing oneself from, if not directly hostile to, the West is not enough to constitute a solid bond. China certainly supports Russia in its war in Ukraine, but Xi Jinping, before going to Samarkand, stopped in Kazakhstan, as if to demonstrate that Astana/Nursoultan, the country's capital since 1998, depends much more on Beijing than on Moscow for its future.
And since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Delhi refuses to choose clearly between Moscow and Kyiv, between Eastern despotism and Western-style democracy. In the long run, the main danger for India remains China. And it is not Moscow that can and will protect Delhi from Beijing: it is Washington.
By refusing to choose more clearly the camp of democracy, while the Russian offensive looks more and more like a disaster, isn't Narendra Modi's India sacrificing its long-term strategic interests to its very short-term tactical interests? India depends, at least in part, on Russian military equipment. The India of non-alignment, that of Nehru during the Cold War period, remains very present, but does not its refusal to perceive the world as it has become constitute a denial of reality?
Yesterday India needed the USSR to balance the US, and the US to balance the USSR. Now that China has replaced the USSR as the United States' main rival more than ever, can India continue to flirt with Eastern despotism?
Beyond India, there is Iran. None of the members of the SCO wants to see it become a nuclear power, even though this objective is Tehran's main ambition. As for Russia, by choosing Asia, despite its deep European culture, it has taken the risk of surrendering itself hand and foot to China. And it is hard to see Xi Jinping coming directly to Putin's rescue in Ukraine. Did North Korea need Beijing's approval to deliver munitions to Moscow?
While Asia pretends, in Samarkand, to be united against the West behind China - and certainly not behind Russia - Great Britain, and beyond that democratic culture, demonstrates its resilience in London. Of course, we must not fall into irenicism or sentimentality. One cannot compare a high-profile mass with a diplomatic summit.
As an expression of the global emotions of a divided world, the Queen's funeral may have no impact on the choice of Scottish voters if a new referendum on Scottish independence is held in 2023. Many Scots say they are prepared to reconcile the continuation of the monarchy (Charles III, King of Scots) with a divorce from Britain. The most intense emotions are often the shortest.
However, the meeting in Samarkand, coinciding with the Russian debacle in Ukraine and the globalized tribute to the “Queen of Hearts”, seems to act as an indicator of the fall of the soft power (if not of the power at all) of Russia and China. In Ukraine, the Russian troops by collapsing have made several collateral victims.
It is one thing to bet on the triumph of force, it is another to appear clearly on the “wrong side of history.” It is certainly appropriate to be cautious; the war is probably far from over. But today, China made the wrong choice at the wrong time. And Trump will have a hard time making people forget his words describing Putin, the day after February 24, 2022, as a “genius”.
The Westminster global mass - if only because it contrasts so vividly with the authoritarian alternatives - reinforces the soft power of freedom. It is not merely a tribute to the past. It would be premature, as Putin and Xi do, to bury the values of the Western world.
Some reading
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Russia, China, North Korea, Iran — The Emerging Cartel of the Sanctioned Wants to Oppose U.S. Domination. The West must prepare for this confrontation if it wants to preserve peace in the future.
China Is Becoming a Challenger to the IMF for Emerging Countries, but With Disastrous Effects. The recent example of Sri Lanka is a reminder of this.
China Wants to Accelerate in Nuclear Power — Up to 10 Reactors per Year Could Be Built by 2025. The national target was between 6 and 8, but climate change could accelerate the shift to more nuclear.
Ethereum “Merge” Has Finally Happened — First-Day Recap and Bullish Consequences for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is more than ever your only option to take power over your money and your life.
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