Russian Withdrawal, Ukrainian Victory, … the Four Possible Scenarios for the Aftermath of the War.
Vladimir Putin has no easy way out.
It will soon be seven months since Vladimir Putin started the war in Ukraine by ordering the invasion of the country presided over by Volodymyr Zelensky on 24 February 2022. Long on the defensive, Kyiv's forces launched a major offensive on August 29, 2022, and made spectacular breakthroughs in the Russian lines, especially in the Kharkiv region.
Two weeks after the start of operations, President Zelensky claimed to have recaptured “6,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the east and south.” A turning point in the conflict?
In any case, a new blow for Moscow, after the failure of its initial offensive on Kyiv, in February-March 2022, and then its difficulties in advancing in the Donbas in late spring. Although the strategic initiative is now in the hands of the Ukrainians, who benefit from the crucial help of the West, the outcome of the war remains no less uncertain. Several scenarios are thus emerging for the coming months. From a Russian military collapse in Ukraine to a nuclear escalation by Moscow, I attempt to review the possible developments of the conflict.
1. The total collapse of the Russian army
For the Kremlin, this would be a nightmare: the complete collapse of its military apparatus. Strategists no longer rule out this hypothesis. In his latest note, Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus at King's College London, even argues that a “sudden rout is not unusual in wartime” and cites the case of “the Afghan army, in the summer of 2021.”
This scenario is not the most likely, as it would imply that the Ukrainian maneuver in Kherson, in the south, would also succeed, leading to a generalized Russian rout in the rest of the country. So where would the Ukrainian troops stop? At the front line of 2015 or at the borders of 1991, regaining a foothold in Crimea? Everything will depend on the negotiations ... if they resume one day.
The Russian army has not been completely defeated in the east and its troops in the south are larger and better. But the morale of the Russian soldiers is so low that a collapse remains possible. Such a collapse could cause political upheaval in Moscow.
As Australian General Mick Ryan has pointed out, “a quick Ukrainian victory would have a profound impact on Putin's future, but also on the psyche of a Russian public fed a narrative about its fate and the threat posed by NATO.” By its strategic and historical significance, a humiliating defeat would open the field of possibility on the domestic as well as international level. But nothing says that the Russian state, which has nuclear fire, would become less dangerous.
2. The progressive reconquest by Ukraine
In the eyes of many experts, this is the most likely scenario for the next few months: Kyiv's forces manage to retain the strategic initiative and continue to push Russian forces out of their territory, little by little. Given the current balance of power in Ukraine, this seems to be the scenario we are heading for. In this case, a Ukrainian victory would be possible during the year 2023.
If they manage to win the western bank of the Kherson Oblast in the south to the Dnieper River, Kyiv's forces could then concentrate their efforts on the Zaporizhia region and seek to retake some of their territories in the east of the country. As far as the areas that have come under the Russian flag since 2014?
At most, the Ukrainians would regain the territories they have lost since the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. The recovery of the separatist territories in the Donbas seems very uncertain and Russia will do everything to defend Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.
However, this would be little consolation for Vladimir Putin: his “special military operation” would not have resulted in any territorial gain, at colossal political, economic, and military costs. The essential condition for this reconquest would be the continuation of military and financial support from Western countries. This could be disrupted by a winter marked by inflation and potential energy shortages.
3. The status quo
In this scenario, the Ukrainians reach the end of their offensive potential, then find themselves unable to push their effort any further. As a result, positions freeze, with neither side able to align the resources needed to break through enemy lines on the battlefield. This assumes that the Russians manage to reorganize their position to set up an effective and well-supplied defense.
However, we know that they have lost a lot of equipment as a result of the various strikes and the Ukrainian counter-offensive and that they lack trucks to ensure their logistics. The stability of the front line would not mean the end of the fighting. It would be akin to a frozen conflict, as in the Donbas between 2014 and 2022. It is very likely that lower intensity fighting would remain, with sporadic shelling and skirmishes resulting in deaths and injuries on both sides. The war in the Donbas - before the Russian invasion - had left more than 14,000 dead and 25,000 wounded.
Eventually, the inability of one side to win over the other could lead to the opening of talks. The risk would be that Western weariness with the harmful consequences of the war would lead them to pressure Ukraine to accept a compromise that would not necessarily be to its advantage. Under these conditions, there is no guarantee that an agreement can be reached in the long term. With, in the end, the risk of a new conflagration.
4. Russian escalation
In the impasse, Moscow is trying everything to regain control of the course of operations. Several options are therefore on the table. Faced with the difficulties encountered by the Russian army, voices are being raised to request a general mobilization (this is already the case). The objective is to increase the pool of available men. But this could prove to be complex.
This decision would be very unpopular in the big cities and would deprive Russia of an important part of its workforce. Vladimir Putin has chosen an intermediate solution with a partial mobilization of 300,000 men, but this has triggered strong opposition in Moscow and the rest of Russia.
Moreover, it will not solve the main problem of the Russian army: its lack of specialized soldiers, ability to use complex weapons, drive armored vehicles, and fire. A need that would not be met by a mass of non-professional soldiers trained in a hurry. We are not there yet.
The Russian army can increase its level of commitment. It still has pools of men available among its reservists, conscripts, or professional units, which have not yet been engaged. Another extreme - and feared - hypothesis is that of a nuclear escalation by Moscow.
A single nuclear strike would have only a limited effect on the battlefield, however, because of the dispersion of Ukrainian forces. To change the situation, Russia would have to resort to massive strikes. A scenario that remains at this stage very hypothetical in the eyes of experts. The political repercussions of such an action, on a global scale, could far exceed the expected benefits. And make Russia, which still has international support, topple to the rank of "pariah of the world."
Xi Jinping's China, of which Russia is now a vassal, would probably decide to cut the dots with Vladimir Putin and join the Western camp. Something Putin cannot afford as his economy and industry sinks toward general paralysis.
Some reading
Samarkand — Westminster: The Summary of the Geopolitical Evolution of the World. The values of freedom and democracy of the Western world have not said their last word.
The Nuclear Weapon Remains the Last Joker of Vladimir Putin Who Is More Weakened Than Ever. To brandish nuclear weapons indiscriminately is a terrible admission of weakness on the part of Putin.
Russia’s Military Weakness Fosters the Return of Conflicts in the Post-Soviet Space. Moscow is overwhelmed by the clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Today, the World Is More Than Ever in the Grip of Famine. The great famines of the past centuries came from climatic or military shocks.
Birds of a Feather Flock Together — Pariah of Global Finance, Afghanistan Turns to Russia. Not sure if Russia has enough to help the Taliban though.
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