Russia, China, North Korea, Iran – The Emerging Cartel of the Sanctioned Wants to Oppose U.S. Domination
The West must prepare for this confrontation if it wants to preserve peace in the future.
The United States of America is the world's leading superpower. Period.
No one can dispute that now, even if Xi Jinping's China aims to take that unofficial title from America by 2049 for the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.
With this status, America has increasingly resorted to economic sanctions in its foreign policy over the last three decades. Relying on the financial hegemony of the American dollar, these sanctions have even become their major weapon, since the American strategists have, after the Afghan, Iraqi and Libyan failures, given up on military expeditions for regime change.
Today, this policy of sanctions applies mainly to four authoritarian countries, all of which have (or are about to have) nuclear weapons: Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
Having overestimated his forces and failed in his “special military operation” in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is trying to regain his geopolitical health by creating a cartel of the sanctioned. This was the whole point of his Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), organized in Vladivostok, which the Russian president went to open on September 7, 2022.
This cartel is being put in place by the multiplication of political contacts and military maneuvers between sanctioned countries. Neither China, nor Iran, nor North Korea condemned the Russian aggression on Ukrainian territory in February 2022.
In Vladivostok, the sanctioned countries worked on the de-dollarization of international trade. Unable to bear the moral lessons (often accompanied by sanctions) given on human rights by the Western bloc, the sanctioned paid tribute to the UN principle of the intangible sovereignty of States. To hear Russia defend this principle must have had a certain flavor...
When it sanctions a new country, America demands - and often obtains - that its European and Asian allies align themselves with its position, even if they sometimes manage to be less severe, to preserve their economic interests. When it unilaterally withdrew from the July 14, 2015, Iran nuclear deal, its European allies, who were also signatories to the agreement, refused to follow it in its policy of returning to sanctions. But this did not change anything, as European companies and banks present in Iran were self-sanctioned, for fear of retaliation from the US Treasury.
Iran now has a chance to get out of the sanctioned cartel, by returning to the Vienna agreement, which America is willing to join. The texts are ready, all that remains is to sign them. For obscure reasons, the politico-religious leader of Iran still refuses to do so. Tomorrow's geopolitics will be that of the confrontation between the Western bloc and the cartel of the sanctioned. The African, Indian, Latin American, and Asian worlds will watch as spectators.
Because of the balance of terror of the atomic weapon (possessed by three countries of the Western bloc), this confrontation will be more legal, economic, and technological than military. However, the accidental occurrence of the last option cannot be ruled out, after some incident, whether air or naval, in areas as tense as the Black Sea, the East China Sea, or the Persian Gulf.
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the two major blocs?
The strengths of the Western bloc (which in Asia extends to South Korea, Japan, and Australia) are above all technological and financial. But these are fragile assets. The fact that China has developed over the last thirty years by copying Western technology does not mean that it is incapable of innovating on its own.
China now trains 1.3 million engineers per year. Geniuses will likely emerge from this mass. In the telecommunications sector, the Chinese technical level has surpassed that of the West. Because of its growing boycott by the sanctioned cartel, the reign of the American dollar will probably not last forever. China hardly uses it anymore, in its purchases of hydrocarbons from Russia or Iran, as well as in its trade in Africa and Asia.
The cartel's main asset is more territorial than demographic. Russo-Chinese Eurasia is six and a half times larger than the European Union! Siberia is depopulated, but with Chinese investment and global warming, it could become a huge area with a climate comparable to Normandy in France.
It is dramatic that the West has not succeeded in following the triangle advocated fifty years ago by Kissinger: to be always closer to Russia and China than to each other.
Peace must be given every chance. The great confrontation is not yet certain. The dictators could come to blur. But we in the West had better prepare ourselves for it, politically, militarily, industrially, and in terms of food. Because, for us, it is anything but won in advance.
Some reading
The World Economy Is on the Brink of a Precipice in a Situation Reminiscent of the 1970s. The energy shocks had rekindled inflation.
Six Months After the Start of Putin’s War, the Balance of Power Is Shifting to the Ukrainian Side. Ukraine wins crucial battles … that will lead it to success in this long-term war.
China Is Becoming a Challenger to the IMF for Emerging Countries, but With Disastrous Effects. The recent example of Sri Lanka is a reminder of this.
One Year After Taking Office, Fumio Kishida Has Failed to Redistribute Wealth in Japan. Yet he had a unique window of opportunity.
5 Key Questions for the Midterms. Inflation or Democracy? What will the Americans prefer on November 8, 2022?
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