Putin Wants to Be the Anti-western Godfather, but Xi Jinping Will Not Follow Him in His Crusade in Ukraine.
China is much more powerful than Russia, and its interests are more global and diverse.
The photo is surprising. The leaders have indeed dropped the tie. It shows Vladimir Putin, with Belarusian Alexander Lukashenko, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Azeri Ilham Aliev sitting next to him. The image that the Kremlin wanted to send is that of a group of friends feasting around a coffee table loaded with oriental sweets.
Missing from the picture are other prominent participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which took place on September 15 and 16, 2022 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan: Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, and his Indian and Pakistani counterparts, as well as those of the Central Asian Republics.
Within this anti-Western club, Vladimir Putin aspires to play the leading role.
A global “counter-society”, whose ranks seem to have closed due to recent polarization factors - war in Ukraine, energy crisis ... -, but which conceal deep differences of interest.
It is first of all about China that the head of the Kremlin intends to mark his “turn” towards the East and to seek a role of primus inter pares. This Eastern pivot is a process that was launched several years ago, as Moscow insists. But the fractures created by the start of the "special military operation" and the massive Western sanctions have forced the Russian authorities to accelerate the movement - politically and economically - to strengthen its Eastern support.
While Beijing has neither supported nor publicly criticized the Russian invasion, Vladimir Putin welcomed on Thursday the “balanced position” of China, while noting that it had “questions and concerns”. Questions which turn in particular around the “sovereignty,” a neuralgic subject in the eyes of Beijing.
Vladimir Putin, who met twice with Xi Jinping in Samarkand, was also quick to give guarantees to his Chinese friend by supporting his position on Taiwan. The two leaders put up a united front and affirmed their willingness “to assume their responsibilities as great powers”. On Friday, September 16, 2022, the two leaders once again joined forces to pose as a counterweight to the Western order.
But it is also on the economic front that Vladimir Putin, quarantined by the West, has endeavored to show that he is not isolated. His priority is to redirect the flow of hydrocarbons to the East, while the West is closing its markets. The head of the Kremlin has discussed this with the leaders of China, Pakistan, and India.
In discussion for years between Moscow and Beijing, the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline will “replace” Nord Stream 2 (between Russia and Germany), hastened to announce, symbolically, Thursday, September 15, 2022, the Russian Minister of Energy, Alexander Novak. The Mongolian president, Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh, also a member of the SCO, has agreed that gas and oil can transit through his country between Russia and China.
But China is a “difficult interlocutor,” as Vladimir Putin himself has acknowledged, and these major projects have yet to be implemented. Nevertheless, in six months, bilateral trade has jumped by an average of 30%, by 150% for hydrocarbons (to China), and by 340% for electronic components (to Russia).
China has its interests at heart, and the CCP is not interested in Putin's crusade in Ukraine
However, fundamentally, China, which thinks first of its interests, maintains a cautious position aimed at staying under the radar of Western sanctions. Beijing avoids delivering weapons and sensitive products to its big neighbor and is more than reluctant to directly finance or invest in Russian companies. Chinese banks limit their financing for the purchase of Russian goods.
The “no limits friendship” that Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping claimed during their meeting on the sidelines of the Olympic Games in early February 2022, has come up against mutual mistrust and ulterior motives.
In Samarkand, the head of the Kremlin has once again denounced Western attempts to create “a unipolar world,” and multiplied the proposals to place himself at the head of the pack: create a common sports organization in the SCO, while Moscow is in trouble with the Olympics for doping, and offer fertilizer to developing countries.
But, seen from Beijing, which brought the SCO into the baptismal font in 2001, one “does not buy” the leadership of the Russian president, doubting without doubt also his capacity to reach “the multipolar world” that Putin calls of his wishes.
“China is more powerful than Russia and its interests are more global and diverse,” said Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Research Institute. “Beijing wants to preserve its strategic understanding with Russia to counterbalance American power and Western economic pressure on China. But China wants to move forward on this path without having to support Russia at the tactical level, to preserve its access to the global market and avoid sanctions," adds the expert.
The club of Eurasian powers in which Putin wants to impose himself also faces important rivalries. Central Asian countries that used to belong to the USSR are wary of Moscow - another reason for China, which is very concerned about its ascendancy over this key region, to qualify its support for Russia at a time when it is attacking Ukraine. India and Pakistan have a historic confrontation.
No bilateral meeting took place in Samarkand between Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as the two major rival countries have long-standing border disputes.
On the eve of the summit, the Kremlin's diplomatic adviser, Yuri Ushakov, believed that “the SCO offers a real alternative to Western-oriented structures”. Nothing is less certain, given the geopolitical kaleidoscope illustrated by the Samarkand summit. Any form of an alliance is to be excluded.
“For Chinese foreign policy, the creation of such alliances is an obsolete practice of the 20th century,” says Alexander Lomanov, a researcher at the Russian Institute of China and Modern Asia. According to this expert, “in the world of the 21st century, Beijing believes that there should be no confrontation of blocs, small worlds behind high walls.”
One more stone in the garden of Vladimir Putin who did not need this at a time when he is facing multiple pressures both in Ukraine and in Russia itself.
Some reading
More Feverish Than Ever, Vladimir Putin Launches Extravagant Threats to the EU on Hydrocarbons. Sanctioning the EU would mean that Putin would cut himself off from more than 30% of its foreign exchange earnings.
Crypto.com Error in Your Favor, You Receive $7.2M Instead of $68. What Do You Do? This is the true story of an Australian user.
And If the Improbable Happened in Russia … Could Vladimir Putin Be Impeached? The road is long, but the grumbling against Putin’s stupid war continues to rise inside Russia.
Borrowing Fiat Money to Buy Bitcoin … Good or Bad Idea? Full analysis.
The Great Disarray of Western Politicians in Front of the Multiple Challenges of the Next World. One positive note, however, is that humanity has been through much worse, and has always come through.
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