Putin Tests the EU’s Cohesion. Europeans Must Stand Firm to Win the Autocracy vs. Democracy Battle.
The current struggle is essential for the future of Ukraine and Europe.
The war in Ukraine is not only taking place on the battlefield but also in the economic and political fields. If the Russian army, since the beginning of the war, is struggling against the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian forces, the Kremlin has recently scored points on other grounds.
The departure on Monday, August 1, 2022, for the first time since the beginning of the war, of a grain ship from the port of Odesa, is rightly considered good news. But if Moscow, which since February 24, 2022, blocked the Ukrainian ports, agreed to sign an agreement with Ukraine, under the aegis of the UN, it is because the Kremlin had an interest. Vladimir Putin needed to give a pledge to his allies in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, the first to be affected in the event of a global food crisis.
In exchange for this sign of “goodwill”, Russia obtained the promise of a reduction in sanctions, notably for its exports of agricultural products and fertilizers. To convince Vladimir Putin, the Europeans even suggested lifting part of the sanctions imposed on seven Russian banks.
Finally, Russia now knows the position of the Ukrainian sea mines scattered in the Black Sea ...
By bombing Odessa a few hours after the signing of the agreement at the end of July 2022, the Russians reminded us that they could torpedo the agreement on grain exports at any time. Like Turkish President Erdogan with immigration, Vladimir Putin has his hand on the economic tap, that of gas and grain, which he can close at any time.
The master of the Kremlin is playing on the economic dependence and fear of European companies, while the indirect consequences of the war are causing a rise in prices and raising fears of energy shortages and a recession. The war in Ukraine is also a test of resilience between Russia and the West, especially in Europe.
Europeans had praised their show of unity at the beginning of the war. But after five months of conflict, fear and fatigue are testing the EU's cohesion. Its unity is crumbling over energy. Hungary has negotiated with Moscow for additional gas deliveries. Spain and Portugal are refusing to cut their gas consumption by 15 percent as provided for in the Brussels plan.
In Germany, the ruling coalition is showing signs of division over the extent of the economic repercussions of reducing Russian gas imports.
The discontent in some European countries seems to go in the direction of Putin
Since the beginning of the summer, the international context has also been favorable to Vladimir Putin, who has seen his allies in the West strengthen and his opponents fall one after the other. First, Boris Johnson, one of his greatest detractors, handed over the keys to the country last month.
Then Mario Draghi was forced to resign at the end of July 2022. A supporter of aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, the head of the Italian government had to bow to the alliance of three parties in his coalition (the right-wing populists of Matteo Salvini, Giuseppe Conte's 5-Star Movement, and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia), which have always had ties with Vladimir Putin. There is no doubt that Mario Draghi's successor will be much more conciliatory with the Russian president.
In Hungary, on the other hand, Viktor Orban, Moscow's main ally in Europe, has emerged stronger after being widely re-elected in April 2022. As for the United States, major supporters of Ukraine at the military and financial level, they have, since the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan, a new front to deal with, while Russia is taking the opportunity to further strengthen its ties with Beijing.
In France, the election result has weakened Emmanuel Macron, who was during the EU presidency one of Europe's leading voices on Russia. The Kremlin can now count on the Rassemblement National and La France Insoumise in the French Assembly to take a more conciliatory stance towards Russia. LFI voted against the membership of Finland and Sweden in Nato. Marine Le Pen has called for the abandonment of sanctions against Russia, which she says “serve no purpose whatsoever” except to make Europeans suffer. This is a shameless lie because the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse, but given what it owes to Putin's Russia, it is understandable that she is going in the direction of the Kremlin dictator.
Her call is in addition to that of the Hungarian Prime Minister who believes that with the economic sanctions, the European economy has “shot itself in the lungs and is suffocated”. Indeed, the European sanctions have not yet had the effect that European countries hoped for on the Russian economy and regime because many seem to forget that they will have an effect over time.
“Western sanctions allow to hold the aggressor state responsible for its crimes and also to weaken its capacity to continue the war... It is not the sanctions that are killing the European economy but the hybrid war that Russia is waging,” reminds Oleg Nikolenko, the spokesman of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Final Thoughts
While the major Western capitals are on summer vacation, the Kremlin agents remain active. Their role is to raise discontent and to present the policy of resistance to aggression as unnecessarily painful. They did not approve of the aggression, but they condemn the resistance to it. This is the after-sales service of Putin in the West.
Because the war in Ukraine, just like the military unrest over Taiwan, is also a fight between autocracies and democracies. Let's hope that the democracies will be able to stand up to the clan of tyrants, in the forefront of which we find Vladimir Putin.
Some reading
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