Putin Sees Germany As the Weak Link in the EU and Is Stepping Up the Pressure With the Gas Weapon.

Divisions are beginning to appear within the German political class.

This turbine has been in the news so much in recent weeks that it could be called the turbine of discord. Recently repaired in Canada, this rocket engine-like piece of equipment is destined to equip the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, linking Russia to Germany.

The turbine, which is the object of all the attention, is currently stored at the Siemens Energy site in Mülheim an der Ruhr (North Rhine-Westphalia), awaiting transfer to Russia. But for several weeks now the gas turbine has been blocked in Germany, for reasons that both Berlin and Moscow - in this case, the Russian state-controlled company Gazprom, operator of Nord Stream - deny.

The case is making headlines in Germany, where it illustrates the growing fears of the population about the severe energy crisis that threatens if Russian gas supplies were to be cut off, by the European sanctions decided after the invasion of Ukraine. The dispute also sheds light on Germany's heavy energy dependence on Russia, which provides 35% of its supplies.

For Moscow, the country which was for a long time, for historical and economic reasons, its main partner in Europe, is now a weak link on which it is appropriate to press with a precise aim: to derail Western support for Kyiv.

“An economic war is an economic war,” points out Fyodor Lukianov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, and one of the most knowledgeable foreign policy experts. “Russia will naturally behave most profitably and effectively for it under the current conditions,” says the man who chairs the expert group of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy of Russia.

Of course, Russia will try to take advantage of Germany's energy dependence on it. “How could it be otherwise,” continues Fyodor Lukianov. “The initiative to cut economic ties does not come from Russia but Germany, from Europe. It is strange in these circumstances to expect Russia to fulfill its obligations ...,” he says.

Some, like former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, are even advocating the relaunch of Nord Stream 2

Without the famous turbine, Nord Stream 1 cannot function normally, Gazprom claimed, reducing supplies to one-fifth of the pipeline's capacity. As a result, the price of gas has jumped by 20%. “There is no reason to prevent the delivery from taking place,” and Moscow must just “provide the necessary customs information for its transport to Russia,” argues the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, caught between his concern for European solidarity with Vladimir Putin and the anxiety of his fellow citizens as winter approaches.

Olaf Scholz has even mentioned the possibility of calling into question the closure of the last three nuclear power plants in operation in Germany, scheduled for the end of 2022. For its part, Gazprom accuses Siemens Energy of not having sent the necessary documents to allow the turbine to be restarted, which the German company defends.

“A tense and absurd situation that was caused by Western restrictions and sanctions,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov last week.

But behind this quarrel lies another issue: the relaunch of Nord Stream 2, desired by Moscow and which would have symbolic value. A real sea serpent, very controversial, because it was supposed to increase Europe's dependence on Russian gas, the project was finally suspended by Berlin under pressure from its allies in February 2022, two days before the start of the “special military operation” in Ukraine.

In Germany, some personalities advocate for its reactivation, first of all, the former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, chairman of the board of Gazprom, who recently met again with his friend Vladimir Putin. It is “technologically possible” to reopen the Nord Stream 2 valve, as Nord Stream 1 cannot be used, the Kremlin leader told him.

The Vice-President of the Bundestag, Wolfgang Kubicki, is on the same line. He pleaded on August 19, 2022, for Berlin to give the go-ahead for the reopening of Nord Stream 2, so that “the population will not freeze this winter and our industry will not suffer serious damage.” The head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kuleba, replied with a scathing: “addiction to Russian gas kills.”

But we can measure the strength of the lever that Moscow has over the first European economy. Without Russian gas, there is no longer a dominant German industry in Europe. Moreover, mayors and legislators in several eastern Länder are warning of “massive social tensions.”

The Minister-President of Saxony wants the war in Ukraine to be “frozen”. His Bavarian counterpart is calling for “thinking of our people”. As a result, “the friction between the three partners of the coalition government is beginning to be felt,” noted Constanze Stelzenmüller, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, in the Financial Times on Monday, August 22.

Putin sees Germany as the main weak link in the Western alliance

A page has been turned. The Merkel period was marked by the German will to tie Russia to Europe by importing its energy, in an attempt to control it. A policy that dates back to the 1960s, pursued by all chancellors and whose failure, insist Russian experts, can not be attributed to Angela Merkel alone. “It is the end of a story that lasted fifty years, marked by a desire to integrate Russia into a certain form of the European system. Russian energy imports were the basis of this interaction. Now the Europeans, and Germany in particular, want to get rid of them. A period is over,” sums up Fyodor Lukianov.

The reality principle remains.

“Winter is coming, it's time to move to Russia,” recently proclaimed a Russian propaganda video that has gone viral. An ironic counterpoint to Putin's message to the Germans: “Open Nord Stream 2 or you will suffer.” For many in Berlin, this would be political suicide. The head of the Kremlin, however, remains convinced that “Germany remains the fulcrum where he must apply maximum force to break Europe and the alliance,” says Constanze Stelzenmüller.

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