Putin Is Faced With a Situation He Hates: He Has to Decide Under the Pressure of the Ukrainians’ Success.
Putin is now facing double pressure: that of Ukraine and the hawks in Russia.
Expected in the South for several weeks, the counter-offensives of the Ukrainian army have finally arrived in the North-East of the country with the success that we know. Ukraine has just proved to the West that it can win this war against Putin's Russia.
The only thing is that the massive support of the West to Ukraine lasts as long as it takes for Russia to finally lose this war that Putin unnecessarily started on February 24th, 2022.
In the aftermath of the Kyiv army's successes, Vladimir Putin now finds himself in the situation he hates the most: deciding under pressure. The head of the Kremlin, who does not like to act in reaction to opposing initiatives, is however now obliged to move forward.
Because Putin is being pushed around on all fronts.
Military, with the sudden Ukrainian advances. And political, with a double opposition, unprecedented in nearly a quarter of a century in power: these enemy victories encourage both the small liberal protest circles that are trying to take advantage of the opportunity to federate the various discontents, but above all the hawks who already blamed the president for being too weak and are now demanding more radicalization.
High tensions in the Kremlin
This is a moment of great tension at the top of the power in Moscow. Of course, it is impossible to know what is going on in Putin's head, especially when he is faced with a fait accompli. For the moment, as usual, the elites are aligned with the Kremlin, accustomed or forced to support the president and his narrative.
The history of Russia reminds us, however, that any political shift will not come from the street but the games of influence at the top. Today, Vladimir Putin is suddenly being criticized by those who, until then, served as faithful relays of his propaganda.
The Russian army criticized
Since the withdrawal of Russian forces in the North-East of Ukraine, the state television stations have allowed the disorder to express itself. Vladimir Soloviev, one of the main spokesmen of the government, said that the situation was “serious, difficult.” On social networks, experts and pro-Kremlin bloggers dared to criticize the army, mocking the generals' failings, and questioning the troops' fighting ability.
These unusual public criticisms could be the expression of deeper frustrations behind the scenes in certain circles of power. Some in the conservative pro-war camp no longer understand how Vladimir Putin will “win” in Ukraine.
Limited risk for Putin ... for the moment
The risk at this stage for the power is very limited, despite the official request for impeachment from the Smolny district council in St. Petersburg. Against a backdrop of weariness, even of the population's dull frustration with the military stalemate, the Kremlin's rhetorical declarations and its oscillating objectives are nonetheless leading to a rise in nervousness.
Vladimir Putin - reputed to be a master of balance between the different “towers of the Kremlin” (the hawks reproaching him for being a centrist too concerned with compromise and the liberals accusing him of iron authoritarianism) - could respond to this wave of uncertainty as a specialist in surprise, acting once again where he is not expected.
But Putin should not forget a recurring rule in Russian history: the elite supports the tsar, whoever he is, imperial, communist, or a graduate of the secret services. Until the day when the elite understands that the tsar is a problem and decides to solve the problem...
Contradicted by military setbacks, this new “patriotic” opposition could force the Kremlin to move into higher gear in Ukraine. Contrary to the liberal opposition, discredited because it is presented as the fifth column of the West, this nationalist protest would be seen as legitimate by a population that has been force-fed patriotic speeches for years.
While the Russian army has just launched “massive strikes” on all fronts in retaliation to the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the most fierce is already calling on the Kremlin to pull out the fatal weapon: the nuclear option.
However, resorting to this option would not be without risks for Putin. First of all, for his troops stationed in Ukraine, or for the population living in the West of Russia, which is close to the Ukrainian border. Finally, and above all, towards China and emerging countries. Putin is supported by these countries so far, in an approach aimed at opposing the West, but the use of nuclear power could isolate Vladimir Putin and Russia.
As you can see, Putin is increasingly up against the wall, as the situation in Ukraine is completely out of his hands, and the most likely outcome of this war seems likely to be a humiliating defeat of the Russian army.
The two main uncertainties are when this defeat will take place, and above all if Putin can resist it while remaining at the head of a humiliated Russia, a pariah of the West, and a vassal of China.
Some reading
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BTW, I might add the Smolny District is a stronghold of the Communist Party. The ruble closed at 56 today up from 87 in March. BTW, here is Mexico we have lots of oil and gas to sell you. No need to freeze this winter.
How many stories have you read recently about the turning point in the War in Ukraine? The narrative says that the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a successful counterattack across a broad front south of Kharkiv and extending across the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russians were not only pushed back but they retreated in disarray. Vehicles were abandoned, Russian deserters were everywhere, and Russian morale was low. Ukraine was poised to regain much of the territory it had lost earlier in the war. Putin was under threat at home and might soon be replaced in a coup d’état.
All that was needed was more money and more advanced weapons from the U.S. and its NATO allies and the Russians could be pushed back to Russian territory. Almost every aspect of this narrative is false. Here’s the real story…
Ukraine did launch a counteroffensive and it did regain some territory. None of the territories was critical in terms of natural resources, industrial capacity, or logistics nodes except for one relatively minor junction.
The Russian troops who rolled back were not regular army or even mercenaries but something like a local police force organized by the Russians to patrol the villages and towns on the perimeter of Russian control. Those forces were mostly withdrawn safely; very few engaged in an actual confrontation with Ukrainian forces and casualties were light.
The Russians quickly consolidated along interior lines and the stalemate on the Donbas front continues. Except now the Russians have mobilized 300,000 fresh troops and will quickly reinforce and expand their presence in Ukraine. The Ukrainians suffered large casualties in the aftermath of the offensive as a result of Russian artillery barrages.
The Russians will wait for colder weather when their experience and equipment will give them a decisive edge and then push back the line and prepare for new objectives such as Odessa.
Meanwhile, the winter will bring Russia’s energy advantage to the fore as Western Europe has to shut down industry, turn down thermostats, and face popular unrest at the high cost of supporting the Ukrainian oligarchs and neo-fascists.
The Ukrainian offensive was little more than a show intended to spin up Western media and open the door for more money to be sent to the oligarchs (much of which gets recycled as campaign contributions to Democrats ahead of the midterm elections). That’s the real story. But you won’t find it in the mainstream media.
Meanwhile, Russia’s been busy on the economic front, and continues its plans to move away from the dollar.
We need to confront the reality that the sanctions were a blunder from the start. But the “hate Russia” crowd was so blinded by their contempt for Putin that they plowed ahead regardless.
Now the unforeseen consequences are emerging and they’re even worse than the critics imagined.
The globalist elites and Western politicians pursue their fantasies of windmills and solar modules while serious countries like Russia and Iran gain a lock on the only energy supplies that will really matter for the foreseeable future — oil and gas.