Putin Is Betting Everything on General Winter, but Ukraine Will Show Him That He Is Once Again Wrong.
The Ukrainian soldiers are used to the Russian Winter and they will not let the Russian army rest.
The Russian Winter is also known as “General Frost” or “General Winter”. Rightly so, as this expression is well known, attributing the rout of the Napoleonic troops in Russia in 1812 to the great cold.
This same general could, according to some analysts and Kremlin supporters, save Vladimir Putin by “freezing” (so to speak) the front lines soon. The snow and freezing temperatures, down to -30°C, in December, would prevent any military offensive.
The current momentum of the Ukrainians would then be exhausted and Vladimir Putin would have precious months before the spring of 2023 to reorganize and resupply his army, more than ever in difficulty in Ukraine. By January 2023, Putin could count on his 300,000 properly trained and equipped conscripts.
All this would allow Vladimir Putin to negotiate from a position of strength, especially since Western public opinion, shivering in apartments deprived of Russian gas, would pressure its leaders to let go of Ukraine.
In short, time would play in favor of the Kremlin, which knows it and “plays for time”: its army barricades itself in Kherson and delivers a destructive bombing campaign. A long time since the Kremlin would know how to domesticate, contrary to the Westerners who are always in a hurry, by preparing its economy for a long-term fight.
Except that nothing says that things will happen this way. It is rather an ideal scenario to which Putin and his relatives are obliged to adhere in the face of the victorious counter-offensives of the Ukrainian army. This says a lot about the real state of the Russian army in Ukraine ...
We can make war by -30°C
Let's start with the military terrain. Certainly, the sticky mud caused by the autumn rains, the famous Rasputitsa, will hamper the movement of tanks in November. But then, they will be able to drive on frozen ground. The weather will hamper aviation and the cold will freeze small arms, but nothing insurmountable, especially for Russians and Ukrainians accustomed to extreme cold.
Moreover, contrary to popular belief, offensives are quite possible in winter: the Russian invasion began at the end of February, and Germany and the USSR fought many battles, including Stalingrad, during the winters of 1941-1945. And the USSR launched the “winter war” against Finland in 1939, whose snipers, by the way, proved to be deadly mobile and agile. The battle of the Chosin Reservoir in Korea was even fought in record-breaking temperatures of -6°C in 1950.
Moreover, the relative lack of mobility of tanks is not penalizing for a Ukraine that does not need very deep offensives: the front line is only a hundred kilometers as the crow flies from the Russian border in the Donbas and 130 kilometers from the Crimea ... where winters are of Mediterranean type.
Of course, fighting at -30°C is hard, especially for the least well-equipped soldiers, and many of the warm clothes paid for by the Russian army were never delivered or were stolen. There are also serious doubts about Moscow's ability to train and equip 300,000 men in the next two months with uniforms and heavy weapons, while its non-commissioned officer corps has been decimated.
Gas poker
As for the real risk of a reversal of European public opinion due to the closing of the Russian gas tap, the game is not yet up, since the 27 countries claim to have filled their gas reserves to 90%. In Brussels, some believe that even if Gazprom were to cut the last active pipeline, Turkstream, the EU could overcome the corresponding loss, equivalent to 9% of its consumption now, compared to 40% last year.
Above all, the dominant political actor, as well as the main supplier of arms and ammunition, by far, to Ukraine, is Washington. Which does not import a drop of Russian oil and gas thanks to the development of shale hydrocarbons (Europe could moreover question its moratorium on the matter).
As much to say that a drop of Kyiv by the United States, where 73% of respondents say they are determined to continue supporting Ukraine, is not on the table.
A shortage of crucial components for Russia
Finally, the winter is not likely to give the Russian army time to regain its strength either, for the simple reason that Western sanctions are considerably hampering its arms industry. Embargoes are slow poisons for the supply chains vital to the replacement of tanks, half of which have been destroyed, and missiles, two-thirds of whose components are not produced in Russia.
The Kremlin probably now has fewer than 1,000 cruise missiles (maneuvering towards their targets, for which they have GPS coordinates). A clue: it now fires half-century-old Tockha missiles, missiles designed against aircraft or ships and not land targets, to save its dreaded Iskander, of which it has only 210 left, according to Kyiv, and Kalibr, 120 at $6 million each.
In short, time is probably not playing as much in Putin's favor as he might hope. Has Putin realized this? This would explain the sudden acceleration of the tempo of the bombings and deployment of an invasion force in Belarus in recent days.
This winter, Vladimir Putin could be faced with a retreat or the surrender of his troops in Kherson or part of the Donbas. Putin who, to George W. Bush in 2008, said about Ukraine: “You don't seem to realize that it's barely a country!”
Some reading
The Ukrainian Counter-Offensives Have Established the Balance of Power, the Time for Negotiations With Putin Becomes Possible. It will be necessary to save the face of the authorities in Moscow as in Kyiv, but for the moment, nobody has found a miracle recipe.
The “Qatar Dollar”, or the Symbol of the Endless Monetary Crisis in Argentina. No wonder Argentina is one of the countries where Bitcoin adoption is so high.
Faced With a War Destined to Last, EU to Train 15,000 Ukrainian Soldiers. The support of the Europeans towards Ukraine will remain massive, regardless of the dictator Putin.
Recent PayPal Scandal Shows You Why You Should Absolutely Reject CBDCs. No need for PayPal or CBDCs when you already have Bitcoin.
End of Ultra-Accommodating Monetary Policies: Are Financial Markets Predictable Again? Old indicators that have become obsolete in the age of easy money seem to be becoming relevant again.