Putin Is a Prisoner of the Potemkin Village That He Has Built Around Himself for 23 Years in Russia.
Around him, nobody dares to tell Putin that his army is at its worst in Ukraine.
Among the anti and pro-Kremlin, these photos have made the rounds of Russian social networks. First, it is the Saint-Georges hall, an immensity of imperial whiteness under impressive golden chandeliers. The gray suits line up in tight rows, ready to welcome and celebrate their host. “This is the view that Vladimir Putin is going to have,” wrote the Internet users as a caption, some ironic, others enthusiastic.
In front of the Russian dictator are gathered parliamentarians, regional governors, ministers, religious leaders, and heads of public enterprises. In his speech to the nation, the head of the Kremlin confirmed the (illegal) annexation of four regions of Ukraine under (approximate) Russian control. First applause.
Then, in a long and violent anti-Western diatribe, the dictator Putin denounces the “colonialism” and the “satanism” of the West, accused of plunging into an “ocean of illusions, myths, and fakes as in the time of Goebbels,” propagandist in chief of Nazi Germany. New applause. This astonishing scene took place on the last Friday of September 2022.
This September 30, 2022, seven months after launching his “special military operation” in Ukraine, one week after announcing the “partial mobilization” of 300,000 men, according to the two current litotes of the Kremlin, the dictator Putin has as usually practiced the inversion of values and facts.
A day described as historic by Putin
Vladimir Putin's speech, delivered before an elite that has faithfully taken up his cause, and broadcast on television that has been transformed into a sounding board for his propaganda, convinces those who are already convinced. Sincere or forced, they are before him. They send him the images he wants to see. The head of the Kremlin greets these officials approving him, applauding him, and then ... chanting with him at the top of his voice “Russia, Russia” when, by the hand, he ends up seizing the leaders of the four illegally annexed Ukrainian regions.
Putin is the smallest in size. But, imperial in the center, the president is enthroned, carried away by the support and enthusiasm. A few minutes later, this time on the pavement of Red Square, Vladimir Putin spoke in front of a crowd of anonymous people overacting in euphoria. The setting has changed. But the picture is almost the same. Once again, the dictator Putin sees in front of him supporters who ovate his speech concluded with a triumphant “Victory will be ours!” On the stage, the singers, between military choirs and pop celebrities, heated the atmosphere and repeated the same antiphon: “Russia! Together forever ...”
In this sequence well orchestrated by the Kremlin propaganda, a few hundred people were gathered in small groups under a sea of national flags. The answers are however brief and embarrassed as soon as it is a question of explaining to the journalists the motivations to come to this meeting celebrating this “historical day” according to Putin.
Putin is stuck in the Potemkin village that the system he has built for 23 years has produced around him
For the authorities and their directors, the essential is elsewhere. The televisions serving the Kremlin showed the euphoria of the officials under the gilding of the Saint-Georges hall, then of the citizens on the pavement of the Red Square. The message went through in the homes. Above all, Vladimir Putin can return home serene, reassured of the support of the elite and the people. He leaves his narrative all the less because the system he has built over the last twenty-three years returns to him the images of the same Potemkin village. A trompe-l'oeil in which he has locked himself, unable to perceive the contrary signals.
In front of the Russian dictator, no other realities ever pass by than those of servants and fervent anonymous people. No sign reminds him of the reality on the ground which is extremely bad for the Russian army. Putin neither sees nor feels the economic crisis. He neither sees nor feels the fear of the families caught up in the military mobilization.
On the other hand, the Kremlin's television stations are reporting on a loop about the West caught up in inflation, about Western households fearing bill increases, and about European elites plunged into political unrest.
One week after the double show of September 30, 2022, Vladimir Putin has just celebrated his 70th birthday on October 8, 2022. In power for more than a quarter of a century, assured thanks to his constitutional reform being able to reign after the presidential elections of 2024, Putin is convinced that he has time on his side. For the moment, pretending to ignore the Ukrainian military advances and the upheavals provoked by the Russian elite, Putin is patient and studies his various politico-military options.
While there is an urgent need to reorganize the troops, change military leaders and review the chains of command, Putin has once again brandished the nuclear threat to scare the West. “This has always been in Putin's character: he doesn't sense danger,” confided a former senior Kremlin official who has kept influential contacts at the top. “Five months ago, Putin knew victory was possible. Today, he knows defeat is possible. If he sees that he is losing on the conventional military terrain, he will have two solutions: suicide or nuclear strike,” he predicts.
For the time being, no one has any influence on Putin. Any decision will be his. And to him alone. So we can understand the worst, because he keeps making bad strategic decisions since the beginning of his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
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