More Than Ever in Trouble, Vladimir Putin Is Desperately Seeking the Support of Xi Jinping.
"Hello Xi, I beg you to help me."
A common distrust of the West but little more than fine words. More than ever jostled in Ukraine, become a pariah of the world West, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has marked, once again, his turn to the East by displaying his understanding with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, Thursday, September 15, 2022, in Samarkand in Uzbekistan.
It is in the Uzbek city that was organized the summit of leaders of member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which brings together China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Turkey, and former Soviet republics of Central Asia.
The vigorous declarations of friendship, cooperation, and convergence of views punctuated the outcome of this face-to-face meeting between the two men, the first since the invasion of Ukraine. Xi Jinping, on an international tour for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, assured that his country was ready to assume its role as a “great power” within the framework of strengthened cooperation with Russia, while Vladimir Putin denounced Western attempts “ugly and unacceptable to create a unipolar world.”
A vital relationship for Putin
On the eve of the meeting, the Kremlin recalled the stakes. “This summit is a real alternative to the structures oriented towards the West,” insisted a presidential source. Translation: beyond the SCO, Moscow seeks to strengthen its ties with Beijing which, since the beginning of the “special military operation” in Ukraine, according to the Kremlin's little, has not condemned the offensive and has denounced Western sanctions, but has been careful not to put its money where its mouth is.
In the conditions of confrontation with the West, the relationship with China is vital for Vladimir Putin: political support, the market for hydrocarbons, source of financing... Russia's ability to get through this difficult period depends almost entirely on the “no limits” Chinese friend.
Shortly before the offensive in Ukraine, the two presidents had met in Beijing during the Winter Olympics, with a long joint statement in which they declared their “no limits” friendship. Since 2014, the Ukrainian crisis, Western sanctions, and tensions with Europe and the United States, Moscow does not cease to stage this rapprochement to better show that it is not isolated.
Even before the conflict in Ukraine, Chinese diplomats and businessmen were not fooled and made it pay with long-negotiated agreements. The old distrust between the two countries remains. The balance of power between the world's second-largest economy and the eleventh-largest also plays a role. And, beyond energy projects, the economic rapprochement was not so numerous.
China is content to take what it has to take from Russia, without providing the support that Putin dreamed of. It is therefore mainly an opportunistic relationship that we are dealing with here.
China will not supply Putin with weapons
The meeting in Samarkand was therefore important for the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin knows that the idea of a Beijing-Moscow alliance is feared in the West. In reality, Chinese support hardly materializes: no supply of weapons and no export of industrial components covered by Western sanctions.
This is a real headache for the Russian industry because, de facto, Chinese companies respect Western sanctions. The American market is, for them, on average eight times more important than the Russian market.
In Samarkand, Putin was supposed to try to get more symbolic but above all concrete pledges from Xi. But this is not obvious in the conditions of Russian military defeats on the ground and the rising questions in the Russian elites for the future.
Given the context, Vladimir Putin may not get much from Xi Jinping. Such a failure would put him even more under pressure as he already has to deal with Ukrainian counter-offensives, as well as a growing discontent within Russia itself.
For Vladimir Putin, the hardest part is to come.
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