Like Putin Who Invaded Ukraine, Xi Jinping Could Be Tempted to Attack Taiwan to Make People Forget His Internal Setbacks.
Taiwan is using Ukraine's decentralized defense model to prepare for a possible CCP attack on its island.
Taiwan does not want war but it is preparing for it. What has been happening since the beginning of 2022 in Ukraine with the Russian aggression has clearly shown the world why even when you are on the side of peace, you have to be prepared to go to war to defend that peace. The last few weeks have seen Xi Jinping harden his positions, at the Chinese Communist Party Congress and then at the G20 meeting in Bali in mid-November 2022.
“He will increase the pressure on all countries in the world to distance themselves from Taiwan and not interfere in the conflict between the two countries,” explains Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.
Since 2016, 8 new countries have effectively severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan, under pressure from Beijing (Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Nicaragua, etc.). Only 14 still recognize the island as a sovereign state (Guatemala, Paraguay, etc.). Didn't the visit this summer of the President of the American House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, contribute to adding fuel to the fire, provoking major Chinese military maneuvers?
“No, on the contrary, we are extremely grateful to her. Many Taiwanese followed her delegation along the streets holding up thank-you signs. China is trying to isolate us. Anyone who speaks up to support us is welcome,” said Joseph Wu.
Xi Jinping is all the more frightening because he acts largely alone: “He is determined to work with only a handful of people. He is therefore bound to make mistakes. When you refuse to be contradicted, you are bound to make mistakes,” continues Joseph Wu.
The minister does not venture to make any predictions about when or how Beijing might launch a potential offensive. “What worries me most is China's economic situation. With the zero-COVID policy, its growth will slow down and social unrest will increase. One might think this is good news for Taiwan, but the opposite is true: Xi Jinping will be tempted to provoke a crisis abroad to make people forget his internal setbacks.”
Is the Chinese president even capable of making rational decisions, given his isolation?
“That's the question everyone here is asking. Unless you work in the Chinese government, it's impossible to know what's going on there. The only certainty is that it is beefing up its military defense.” That's what Taiwan is also working on. “That's our priority. We have to deter China from attacking us. We have a duty to defend ourselves, otherwise, we have no right to ask for support from our foreign allies.”
The minister acknowledges, “The lack of training of the reserve army has long been a problem. We are working hard to solve it.”
Military service, which lasts no more than four months, may soon be extended to one year. Military spending, meanwhile, will increase by 14% in 2023 to just over 2% of GDP. A level that many experts still consider very insufficient.
Taiwan wants to learn from Ukraine's effective decentralized defense model
Taiwan, which has only 160,000 reserve soldiers, is drawing inspiration from the Ukrainian model to build a civil defense. A defense mobilization agency has been set up by the government to coordinate the efforts of NGOs, local authorities, and the state. “Our decentralized defense is beginning to be structured. We are trying to acquire small arms and mobile weapons that we will use if the Chinese invade our coast,” explains Joseph Wu.
“The Ukrainians are proving that asymmetric warfare works.”
Partnerships have also been formed with some European countries to learn from their experience in civil defense. The outcome of the Ukrainian conflict is equally decisive. “If the Russians succeed in annexing parts of the country, it will encourage the hegemony of authoritarian regimes elsewhere in the world. China is also watching the attitude of the West very carefully: if they remain united against Russia, it will be strongly dissuaded from invading Taiwan.”
The stakes are global, reminds Joseph Wu: Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world's semiconductors and almost all (90%) of the most sophisticated ones, which make up our smartphones for example. If the country stops production, the entire global economy will collapse, he argues: "The supply crisis during COVID is nothing compared to what we would experience then."
If China were to become more democratic in ten or twenty years, would it be possible to consider unifying the two countries? No, the minister answers without hesitation: the principle of “one country, two systems” will never be in Taiwan's interest, neither now nor later. “The crackdown in Hong Kong since 2019 only confirms what we already knew: we can never believe Chinese promises.”
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