Kim Jong-un’s Disastrous Record After Ten Years As North Korea’s Leader.
The situation is critical for a population that is suffering more and more.
It is now a little over ten years since Kim Jong-un came to power in North Korea. At the time, he was “elected” to head the ruling party. Kim Jong-un succeeded his father Kim Jong-il, who died in 2011 at the age of 69. Kim Jong-il had himself taken over from his father, Kim Il-sung, founder of the communist regime of North Korea, who died in 1994.
The youngest of three children, Kim Jong-un was chosen at the time to the surprise of everyone to perpetuate the red dynasty in North Korea. Even today, the reasons that pushed him to become the heir of this dynasty remain opaque.
A political situation that has never changed
Since then, the political situation in North Korea has continued to worsen. However, hopes were raised when he took power because of his years spent in the best Swiss schools, at least those attended by the heirs of the “greats” of this world. He would have been noticed more for his interest in basketball than for his academic success.
Although he inherited power at a young age, he was able to quickly impose his iron fist. In 2013, he reportedly had his uncle, Jang Song-taek, executed for treason, even though Song-taek was considered his mentor and the regime's unofficial number two. His opponents believed that the new leader feared that he would overshadow him.
Kim Jong-un's half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, was assassinated in 2017 in Kuala Lumpur, a move blamed on the North Korean regime at the time. Several dozen crimes would have benefited from the consent of Kim Jong-un. His sister, Kim Yo-jong, is considered his main advisor.
The military inclinations have not ceased during his ten years in power, despite the attempts of the United States to negotiate under the presidency of Donald Trump. The American president had even met him twice, in 2018 and 2019, without success. Even if Donald Trump doubted it, everyone understood that Kim Jong-un had no intention to negotiate with Trump but simply to show his people that he was someone who counted at the world level, since the American president himself was obliged to come and negotiate with him.
The Pyongyang regime has not hesitated to multiply its provocations, including long-range missile tests that could reach the American continent. At the beginning of January 2022, South Korean intelligence even denounced a launch of an unknown device. Tensions have been rekindled with the recent election of the South Korean president, a nationalist who is not ready to make concessions to his neighbor and rival.
A total economic collapse for North Korea
This is what Kim Yo-jong said again in early April 2022:
“North Korea is opposed to war but will be forced to use its nuclear capabilities if South Korea chooses the path of military confrontation or carries out a preemptive attack.”
South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook had, it is true, mentioned possible attacks against North Korea, stating that “Seoul has a range of missiles that can quickly and accurately hit any North Korean target”.
Diplomatic relations between North Korea and the rest of the world are therefore at a standstill. However, the country benefits from the irrevocable support of Russia and China. The United States tried in vain this week to have a text against North Korea adopted at the United Nations Security Council, which was blocked by Moscow and Beijing.
It is hardly surprising in these conditions that Pyongyang supports at all costs Vladimir Putin's Russia in its war against Ukraine. Its global security is at stake. In the meantime, the international sanctions, following the nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, are maintained at the price, for the North Korean economy, of a weakness accentuated notably by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Trade with China would have dropped by two-thirds to $185 million per year by 2021. Food shortages would multiply and inflationary pressures would increase. A shortage of medicines is also mentioned by South Korean intelligence. Only a détente with the major powers would allow the trend to be reversed. But there is little hope.
Just in the last few days, the American president, Joe Biden, was called a “senile old man” by the tyrant Kim Jong-un. The latter preferred Donald Trump, who showed a disturbing benevolence towards him, we must admit.
For the time being, let's make room for the commemorations of the first decade under the yoke of Kim Jong-un, but also the 110th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, founder of North Korea. Satellite images recently showed North Korean troops training for a military parade. Defense is the only sector that is not in crisis in North Korea. Indeed, dictators like Kim Jong-un always need the support of the army to stay in power.
For the rest, the people can do without, and everything is considered superfluous when it comes to protecting the absolute power of the red dynasty of which Kim Jong-un is the last heir in power.
Some reading
Sanctions Against Russia – History Shows That the West Must Reflect on Their Long-Term Consequences. If breaking ties is easy, building them is a long and difficult process.
30 Years Later, the Fall of the USSR Still Haunts Xi Jinping’s China. A documentary, looking like a reminder for the CCP, lists 5 lessons to be learned from the fall of the USSR.