Is China an Overrated Superpower?
Economically, geopolitically, demographically and militarily, the Middle Kingdom is showing increasingly visible signs of fragility.
Over the last two decades, how many headlines, press articles, and books have presented the People's Republic of China as the new first-world power to come, if not already effective? As is often the case with geopolitical apprentices, they have put forward insufficient criteria, such as GDP growth and population. A hasty observation!
Let's start with the economy, the strong point of Beijing's rise to power, and, therefore, the growth of this famous GDP. The growth of the Chinese economy has gone from 12% to 3% in less than a decade. However, neither the calamitous management of COVID nor the consequences of the war triggered by the “no limits” friend Putin in Ukraine explain this vertiginous fall.
More structurally, the overheating of the economy, the slowdown of investments, and the reaction of the West in strategic sectors have largely contributed to it.
With such low growth, the objectives of achieving prosperity for the 700 million Chinese living around the poverty line will not be met, and the credibility of a regime that justifies its repression and demands sacrifices is likely to collapse in the short term.
It should be added that China is extremely dependent on the outside world (especially the Gulf) for its supply of hydrocarbons.
Secondly, demographics. Although the one-child policy has officially come to an end, this is not the case with its practice! Most young Chinese do not obey the CCP and are content with one child at home. But with a fertility rate of 1 (child per woman of childbearing age), one of the lowest in the world along with Japan and the Eastern European countries, and in the absence of a proactive migration policy, the country will soon suffer from labor shortages in the industry, mining, and agriculture, a chronic inability to finance pensions and a probable weakening of research.
Diplomacy? Buying the sovereign debts of several dozen countries has indeed enabled China to avoid reprimands in terms of human rights or positions in favor of Taiwan. But if we look closely, we see that the states financially dependent on Beijing are almost all, in Africa, Latin America, and Oceania, very weak and lacking in real geopolitical weight. As for the more powerful states located on the Silk Road, such as the vast country of Kazakhstan, they do not automatically pledge allegiance to Beijing.
There remains, precisely, the military and strategic aspect. Recently, a French admiral reminded us that “every three years, China builds the equivalent in tonnage of the entire French war fleet.” But does this undeniable demonstration of strength on the seas, the first since the Ming in the 15th century, imply a real break in capability?
Beyond the posturing and the mind-boggling budgetary sacrifices involved, what do we know about this new Herculean force? What would these ships - and their commanders - be worth against the United States Seventh Fleet? Lacking solid military partners, the Chinese naval forces train alone or, sometimes, with the Russian fleet, which has hardly shone lately in the Black Sea ...
Finally, let's mention the fundamental problem of a very unfavorable maritime geography. China faces island and archipelagic zones, most of which are Western or allied to Washington, from India to the French possessions, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, the Marquesas, Vanuatu or ... Taiwan.
In this regard, Beijing's failure to establish itself militarily in the Western Pacific (except, perhaps, in the Solomons) highlights Joe Biden's success in his regional tour in May 2022, creating a partnership including several countries close to China, as well as the rapid increase in Indian, Japanese and Australian military budgets. At the end of the day, isn't the main asset of a regime aiming at external power embodied in internal stability? Until the recent spontaneous riots linked to COVID, indeed ...
Some reading
Xi Jinping’s Absolute Power Is Driving Him Crazy. China lacks freedom above all. And what is bad for China is bad for the world.
The General Easing of the Zero-COVID Policy in China Is a Sign That Xi Jinping Had to Give In. The resulting economic downturn and rising social discontent weighed on the legitimacy of the CCP.
Between War, Populism, and Authoritarianism, Half of the World’s Democracies Are in Peril. Demonstrations in China and Iran give a fragile glimmer of hope to this dark year of 2022. But the overall picture is worrying, according to the think tank Idea.
Army, Grain, Energy, NATO, … Putin’s War in Ukraine Allows America to Win on All Fronts. Behind this success, Joe Biden, who many saw as being at the end of his rope and practically senile when he arrived at the White House.
America Will Be the Dominant Power Before China in the Next Thirty Years. Here Is Why. The only pitfall that could prevent this American domination is the political instability into which the country could fall.