Influenced by Kremlin Propaganda, the Russian Middle Class Now Supports Vladimir Putin.

Faced with Western sanctions, the Russian people choose to stand behind Putin's actions in Ukraine.

The rhetoric constantly used by the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov leaves no room for doubt. For him, “the West is waging a total war against Russia”. In the face of this all-out war, the Russian authorities assure that the geopolitical tug-of-war and economic threats only strengthen Russian support for Vladimir Putin.

Due to the slowdown in business and the effects of Western sanctions, tax revenues have begun to decline, foreshadowing a sharp decline in Russia's GDP. The Russian central bank has just lowered its interest rate by three points to 11%. The goal is clear: to cushion the impressive strengthening of the ruble after its fall in February and March 2022, during the first month following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A geopolitical victory for the Kremlin in the ruble battle. But with heavy economic damage: it weighs on exports and deprives the state of part of its income.

The West is struggling to understand that sanctions against Russia only strengthen Putin among the people

In its quest for financial stability and the fight against inflationary pressures, the central bank is working to avoid defaults. A task made even more difficult by America's decision to end an exemption allowing Moscow to repay its debts in dollars.

Another front of tension: accused by the West of blocking Ukrainian grain exports, Vladimir Putin has promised to “overcome the food crisis”, but has asked in exchange for a lifting of sanctions. Suspected of blackmail, Russia is planning to greatly increase the export of its grain to 50 million tons, despite the sanctions hitting the supply chain and the financial sector.

Here is what a senior Russian diplomat confided in recent days under cover of anonymity:

“Against Moscow, sanctions and tensions are increasing. This will have economic effects and political damage in Europe itself. But the West has still not understood that at home, the economic problems created from abroad only strengthen the resilience of the Russians and their support for power.”

The Russian middle class, long opposed to Putin, finally gives in to the Kremlin's propaganda

This is what emerges from various discussions with members of the Russian middle class. Andrei, a typical portrait of the Russian middle class, should a priori criticize the Russian intervention in Ukraine, but it is not the case:

“I oppose Putin, but I support the offensive.”

This engineer living in Kazan, a bustling city on the Volga, does not doubt the resilience of the Russian people:

“Western sanctions will hurt us, but we will survive.”

An employee in a factory of the Russian subsidiary of a large European energy group, an entrepreneur and globetrotter, in his early thirties and speaking foreign languages, and a regular reader of European media, Andrei used to oppose propaganda, denounce the corruption of power, and vote against Vladimir Putin in the Russian presidential elections.

But the Kremlin's propaganda seems to have got the better of him:

“But today it is about defending our country in the face of threats! Yes, Ukraine is an independent country but it was necessary to act. A preventive action to avoid that it attacks us.”

Meanwhile, the economic crisis is getting closer. “Prices in stores increase by 20%, all our income goes into daily expenses. No more savings and the purchase of a new car is postponed indefinitely,” says Andrei, a father. The consequences are also felt in his company: “Investments and expansion are frozen. We will soon run out of spare parts for the current lines”.

But Andrei repeats: “If this is the price we have to pay for our independence ...”

Vladimir Putin's popularity now reaches 80% of the Russian population

A testimony among others in this middle class that, behind the 80% popularity of Putin, has turned into unexpected support for the offensive in Ukraine. This is where the Western strategy shows its limits if it was also intended to turn the Russian people against Vladimir Putin.

The Russian people have already shown in the past how they behave when they are mistreated by the West and when the propaganda of the Kremlin power is in full force. The reaction is then to stand behind the country's leader and prove his resilience.

This is once again what seems to be happening here. The West will have to rethink its position if it hoped that Putin would eventually lose popularity following his invasion of Ukraine. His propaganda seems to have turned the middle class in his favor since the beginning of the conflict.