India Is Beginning to Lose Patience and Is Urging Vladimir Putin to End the War in Ukraine.
The worst thing for New Delhi would be a Russia so weakened and isolated that it would become subservient to China, India's rival
Is it a call to order? Or is it an abandonment? On September 22, 2022, before the UN Security Council, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar launched into a tirade of unprecedented firmness towards Russia: “The trajectory that the Ukrainian conflict is taking is a matter of deep concern to the international community. The nuclear issue is a particular concern,” he said.
The day before, Vladimir Putin had not ruled out the use of unconventional weapons in a speech to the nation. “Even in conflict situations, the violation of human rights or international law cannot be justified,” the diplomat said. If India has not condemned the Russian invasion, its patience is beginning to wane.
On the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit on September 16, 2022, Prime Minister Modi told Vladimir Putin: “Our time is not for war,” a statement repeated by Jaishankar at the UN General Assembly on Saturday, September 24, 2022.
“At the beginning of the war, the authorities expressed their unease in private. Today, they are saying it publicly,” said a European embassy. And while New Delhi condemned Western arms supplies to the Afghan resistance after the 1979 Soviet invasion, it did nothing in the Ukrainian case. Nor did it defend the invasion, unlike the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Russian oil
This emerging impatience is explained by the difficulties of the Russian military industry: it can no longer supply spare parts and ammunition to the Indian army. Moscow has been New Delhi's main supplier for almost half a century. 85% of the systems in service with the Indian forces are Russian. The situation is so worrying that the Army chief sounded the alarm in the press in May 2022.
These shortages signal to the Indian government that Russia is no longer a reliable strategic partner.
Above all, they deprive Moscow of a lever of influence. When the USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi condemned the operation as “inadmissible.” As a result, Moscow bought India's silence by releasing a loan of 1.6 billion dollars at a preferential rate and transferring one hundred battle tanks, fighter planes, and warships.
Four decades later, Russia can no longer afford it. On the contrary, it is dependent on India, which is its second-largest buyer of oil. Another problem is that the rise in prices accentuated by the war is hitting the working classes, one of the Indian prime minister's electoral bases. “We have all seen the consequences (of the conflict) on inflation,” Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told the Security Council.
However, the Modi government is not going to abandon its ally, stopping its oil purchases for example. Sold at reduced prices, these supplies have helped to curb rising fuel prices. “India will not break with Russia overnight to side with the West,” insists a European diplomat.
Another states that “Indian diplomacy is divided. On the one hand, the old guard who studied in Moscow shows moral support for Russia. On the other, younger diplomats, sometimes educated in the West, think that India has no interest in pursuing a strong long-term engagement. They prefer to deepen the relationship with some European countries, the United Arab Emirates ...”
There is a consensus among Indian diplomats that the war must end as soon as possible because “the worst thing for New Delhi would be a Russia so weakened and isolated that it would become subservient to China, India's rival,” deciphers a Western diplomat.
Finally, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar wants to unravel the post-war international order that he believes was designed by and for the West. The Hindu nationalist government needs a strong Russia to help it in this project. “The key to Western longevity lies in the set of institutions and practices it established during its period of domination. Putting alternatives in place is a huge challenge. But it will happen eventually,” he writes in his 2020 book “The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World.”
China is for him an example: “The Western reference model has dictated the norms and values of the international community. China has used its cultural roots to project its values and shape the discourse. India needs to emulate this approach.” On Saturday, September 24, 2022, at the United Nations, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar extolled the advent of a “new India”: “We are going to get rid of our mentality inherited from colonization.”
Some reading
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Putin Has Passed the Point Of Not Return — The Security and Stability of the World Mean Moving On to the Post-Putin Era. There is nothing to negotiate with Putin. Russia gambled on force and lost.
The Dollar King Crushes Everything — Are We Heading for the Same Situation As in 1985 With the Plaza Accord? The hypothesis remains remote, but some already remember this major historical episode of the 80s.
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