How Might Putin’s War in Ukraine End? 5 Scenarios to Explore.

From a humiliating defeat for Putin to a global nuclear conflict.

Eight months after the invasion of Ukraine ordered by Vladimir Putin at the end of February 2022, the war in Ukraine shows little sign of ending in the short term. The determination and courage of the Ukrainians to preserve their identity and their territory are opposed to the insane stubbornness of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

Today, both on the battlefield and the diplomatic front, everything indicates that this war in Ukraine is bound to last for many more months, if not years.

Speaking at a peace summit on Sunday, October 23, 2022, in Rome, French President Emmanuel Macron outlined his vision for ending the invasion of Ukraine, launched by Russia eight months ago. “To imagine peace in times of war is the greatest of unthinkable, but all conflicts end around a table,” said the French president, who assures that “he is not asking the Ukrainians to give in to Moscow, but invites them to consider negotiating as soon as possible.”

But on the ground, everything indicates that the operations will continue. The Ukrainian army continues its reconquest, and the Russian army its strikes.

On Sunday, October 23, 2022, Moscow accused Kyiv of preparing to use a “dirty bomb,” remarks that the White House sees as a possible “pretext for escalation.”

How can this still-live conflict ever end? As the situation seems ever more intractable, experts are chasing each other in the Western media trying to make sense of how wars end. This opens the way to 5 possible scenarios for the outcome of this war in Ukraine that I propose to explore in what follows by analyzing their probability of materializing each time.

Scenario 1: Russia reaches its goals

To know the probability of a Russian victory, it is necessary to know what Vladimir Putin's war aims are. We know what he wanted to do at the beginning, namely to provoke a regime change in Kyiv, to reinstall a government aligned with the interests of the Kremlin. This scenario collapsed in the first days of the war when the Russian army failed to take the capital.

Since the initial failure, the course followed by the Russian president is completely unclear. First, he targeted the big cities. Then it was thought that he wanted to take the whole of Ukraine. Then he announced that Russia was focusing on the Donbas. 

But if no one knows what Vladimir Putin wants anymore, the Russian president has not given up. A war ends when the expectations of the actors have been changed, especially when the reality on the ground makes them realize that they do not have the means to achieve their objectives. In this case, everything shows that Vladimir Putin is not convinced that he is doomed to failure in Ukraine. If he has decided on mobilization and strategic strikes on major cities, it is because he thinks he still has the means to win.

For specialists in military strategy, the Kremlin still hopes that the West, destabilized by the energy crisis, will stop supporting Ukraine and push Kyiv to capitulate. But even if the military situation turns around, it is difficult to imagine the Ukrainians stopping the fighting. Above all, given the dynamics of the last few months, the probability of a Russian victory is low. Military experts point out in particular the exhaustion differential between the Ukrainian troops and the Russian army, many of whose officers have been killed, and which has to send conscripts instead of professional troops.

Scenario 2: Ukraine defeats the Russian army and inflicts a humiliating defeat on Putin

Given the last months of conflict, a military victory for Ukraine becomes a real possibility. They have suffered many losses, but they manage to train their soldiers, keep an experienced staff, and the West provides them with equipment. The military dynamics are in favor of the Ukrainian army.

The coming winter will be decisive for many specialists. We will see what the economic and humanitarian situation of the Ukrainians will be, how determined the Europeans will be to support them despite the consequences on their purchasing power, and how this will affect the front. Despite the difficult climatic conditions, the Ukrainians do not intend to take a break in their counter-offensive, assured on October 12, 2022, the Secretary of Defense of the United States, Lloyd J. Austin III, called on Western countries to send them equipment adapted to the cold, reports the New York Times.

It remains to be seen how much territory Kyiv intends to reclaim. Are we talking about the effective borders on February 23, 2022, on the eve of the Russian offensive, or those of 2013, before the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of part of the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk?

The issue can become very sensitive. And create dissension between Ukraine and some of its allies. Because the other unknown, in the scenario of a Ukrainian victory, is how Putin will react. For geopolitical experts, Vladimir Putin has too much invested in this conflict to give in. In highly militarized regimes like his, leaders depend on the performance of their military for their survival, and they tend to double down rather than give up. But war cannot be stopped if one of the two belligerents continues to fight.

Scenario 3: Kyiv and Moscow reach a peace agreement

Sunday, October 23, 2022, in Rome, Emmanuel Macron reiterated his belief that this war will end through negotiations: “At some point, depending on how things develop and when the Ukrainian people and their leaders have decided, in the terms, they have decided, peace will be built with the other, which is the enemy today, around a table.”

A speech that Emmanuel Macron did not give up despite the criticism of Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the willingness of France to maintain dialogue with Vladimir Putin.

Will the end of this war necessarily require an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow? Experts list three determining variables: the fact that at least one of the belligerents changes its objective; that the internal politics of the countries involved are favorable to the end of the war; and that there is a minimum degree of mutual confidence that a peace agreement will be respected.

On the Russian side, none of these factors has been achieved to date. If Russia presents itself as open to mediation with Ukraine, under the aegis of Turkey or the United Arab Emirates, its discourse shows no concession. And Vladimir Putin continues to show confidence in his ability to prevail against the Ukrainian army.

The Russian political context seems to encourage Putin in a kind of headlong rush. Accepting to negotiate the withdrawal of Russian troops would be contrary to the mythology of Putinism, which is based on the image of an ultra-power. The Russian dictator needs this image so that no one can challenge his position in Russia.

The conditions for an agreement are not met in Ukraine either. The population is on edge. If Zelensky announces that he will negotiate with Russia, a new government will replace him immediately, according to geopolitical experts. It is the Ukrainian population that leads the war, and joins the army, but also ensures the continuity of the state, and repairs the electricity network ... Its support is central.

Volodymyr Zelensky, appreciated for his ability to be one with his people, has no room for error in his speech. He continues to virulently refuse any proposal for negotiations as long as Vladimir Putin presides over Russia.

The mutual trust necessary for an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow does not exist either. The Russians have a history of violating their commitments in full. Ukraine has no reason to believe them. The Ukrainian population increasingly interprets this war as part of an existential conflict with Russia. For the Ukrainian public, a cease-fire signed now would be the most frightening assumption: it would give Russia time to strengthen and attack again.

Scenario 4: Vladimir Putin is overthrown in Russia

In Ukraine, nothing seems to threaten Volodymyr Zelenskyy's popularity as long as he continues to fight against the invader. In Russia, on the other hand, military failure and economic difficulties may weaken Vladimir Putin's power base. Russians are historically accustomed to tough leaders, but they have also developed a taste for consumerism and travel.

A large number of people would be ready for change, according to some experts, who observe an increase in the number of disgruntled local administrations, on the front line of enforcing the general mobilization wanted by Putin and suffering the daily anger of Russians. But the Kremlin still has the means to ensure repression. The spark will probably not come from the street.

For the time being, there is no sign of a palace revolution, which would come from people close to the Russian head of state. But the more the Russian soldiers lose, the more likely it becomes. However, it is not unimaginable that Putin will be replaced, but the regime will not fall. A part of the Russian elites has long shared his discourse of hatred of the West. The increasingly audible criticism in Russia does not come from opponents of the invasion of Ukraine, but supporters of the hardening of the regime.

The alternative to Vladimir Putin would not necessarily be better ...

Scenario 5: Regional conflict turns into global nuclear war

To make Ukraine's allies doubt him, Vladimir Putin is threatening to use nuclear weapons. He would consider it, he says, in case of a threat to the “territorial integrity” of his country. Ukraine has no intention of setting foot in Russia, but it does not recognize the annexation of Crimea in 2014 nor that, at the end of September 2022, of four regions of the country, where Ukrainian soldiers are conducting a counter-offensive.

Can Vladimir Putin consider this an attack on Russian territory, and cross this red line? The question is debated among specialists.

The probability is low, less than 10%, but it increases a little because of the difficulties of the Russian army. Putin is a dictator, who can consider that this is his least bad option!

The United States claims to have observed no signs of an imminent nuclear strike. But the fact that they have publicly warned Moscow of the consequences of a nuclear strike shows that they think it is a possibility. The scenario envisaged is that of a tactical strike, i.e., the use of a lesser (but still devastating) nuclear weapon.

The use of a nuclear weapon by Russia would not put an end to the conflict: it is impossible to destroy the Ukrainian army, which is fighting on fronts stretching over several thousand kilometers, with a single localized strike. On the other hand, the Western response would be “so powerful that the Russian army would be annihilated,” the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, has already warned.

Could a nuclear strike in Ukraine then accelerate a Russian military defeat? Or lead Kyiv and its allies to capitulate for fear of escalation? Or accelerate a political change in Russia, displeasing Moscow's allies or the population?

In any case, it would be a different world. Ukraine's Western allies would retaliate, not necessarily in a nuclear way - Emmanuel Macron has ruled it out, for example, on October 12, 2022 - but by conventional strikes. Russia would then have the choice: stop there or move to strategic nuclear strikes against major cities ...

Already in the Cold War era, specialists were aware “that if a conflict goes nuclear, it has very little chance of remaining limited.”

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