Here Is Why the Battle of Kherson Will Be the Critical Turning Point in Putin’s War in Ukraine.

Putin could probably not survive a defeat of the Russian forces in Kherson.

In an interview given on October 29, 2022, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence said that his army would retake Kherson from the Russians by the end of November 2022. Kyrylo Budanov also predicted a long and hard battle. Coming from the mouth of this 36-year-old Ukrainian general, this is proof that the Russian army still exists, contrary to what many Western commentators explained after its September-October 2022 setbacks in Izyum, then in Lyman (100 km north of Donetsk).

The Ukrainian army has undeniably shown that it is more maneuverable, more motivated, better informed, and better equipped than its enemy. It has scored points, which have struck public opinion and filled Ukrainians with pride. But it was not Manstein's offensive that defeated France in the spring of 1940 in one month. The Russians still hold 90% of the territory they conquered after February 24, 2022.

This is why the upcoming battle of Kherson is important for both belligerents. It represents a critical turning point in the war.

If the Ukrainians manage to retake this regional capital, founded in 1778 by Potemkin (the best general, minister, and lover of the Great Catherine), they will gain a crucial tactical and psychological advantage over their enemy. Tactically, the city of Kherson, located on the western bank of the Dnieper, and bathed by the immense river, constitutes a lock towards the Crimea. Whoever holds Kherson also holds the peninsula's irrigation canal.

If they lost the city, the Russian generals could forget forever their dreams of going to Odessa and taking the “New Russia,” once conquered by Potemkin over the Turks. As for Crimea (annexed in March 2014 by Russia after a referendum), it would be under permanent threat of a Ukrainian offensive.

Psychologically, the loss of Kherson by Russian forces would have a considerable impact on Russia, where Putin's feelings for the war are mixed, to say the least. Even if he controls the media, it will be very difficult for the Kremlin master to pass off the loss of Kherson as a mere tactical setback.

On September 30, 2022, Putin solemnly pronounced the annexation of this oblast (administrative region) to Russia, during a great celebration in Moscow, on Red Square. Since October 22, 2022, the population of Kherson has been evacuated to the left (eastern) bank of the Dnieper. Even Potemkin's grave was evacuated.

Does this mean that the Russians are preparing to fight fiercely for the city, building by building, alley by alley?

The occupying troops have been replaced by more motivated professional units. Tactically, it would make sense for the Russians to want to bleed the Ukrainian army as much as possible, in an environment where it would no longer have the comparative advantage provided by American satellite intelligence. Strategically, this battle would buy time for President Putin, who needs it to refresh the military training of the three hundred thousand reservists he has mobilized.

In this war, we have reached a phase where Zelenskyy favors the short time and Putin the long time. The Ukrainian wants to surf on his victorious wave while the Russian counts on the weariness of the Europeans in the long run and on a change of course of the Americans from January 2023. The Republicans are expected to win a majority in the House of Representatives in the November 8, 2022 midterms, which has a veto over spending.

Influenced by Trump, the Republicans are less supportive of the war in Ukraine than Joe Biden's supporters. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy said he no longer wants to give a “blank check to Ukraine.” On the other end of the Capitol, thirty representatives, belonging to the left wing of the Democratic Party, sent a letter to President Joe Biden, asking him to negotiate peace with Russia.

Putin is said to be a chess player. In this game that he started on February 24, 2022, he has already missed the checkmate (victory).

Ukraine will never be “denazified” (to use his propaganda term), it will never return to the Russian fold. Militarily, it will continue to strengthen. Politically, it will get closer and closer to the European Union and NATO. The Russian president is now looking for a stalemate, i.e. a freeze on the conflict, as it currently exists in Georgia.

But Zelensky is in no mood to grant this stalemate. He wants to inflict a defeat on the Russian forces in Kherson because he believes, as does his intelligence chief, that Putin's power in Moscow would not survive it.

---

Some reading

• War Between France and Germany Becomes Possible Again If Their Leaders Do Not Return to the Path of European Integration. It is in the interests of both nations to make concessions.

• The New American Order Is Oriented Towards More Protectionism and Interventionism. A strategy that contradicts the battle against inflation that is Joe Biden’s current priority.

• The Unknown Story of Vasily Arkhipov, the Man Who Saved the World From a Nuclear War in 1962. Alone, he prevented the USSR from attacking the United States during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.

• Vladimir Putin’s War in Ukraine Has Made OPEC Stronger Than Ever. The weakening of the role of oil at the global level has not begun.

• In Shortage of Semiconductors Because of the Sanctions, the Russian Army Falls Back on Refrigerators. Putin’s Russia is importing more and more household appliances from Armenia or Kazakhstan for their electronic components which the Russian army is sorely lacking.