Here Is How Vladimir Putin Amplifies the Inexorable Russian Demographic Crisis With His War in Ukraine.

Blinded by his expansionist madness, Putin is squandering Russia's future for generations.

In 2006, Vladimir Putin considered the demographic decline in Russia as “the most serious problem” of the country. Sixteen years later, the Russian president is once again faced with the same inexorable slide. The war in Ukraine will not help: voluntary departures, mobilization, and losses in combat will further aggravate the demographic disaster that began in the mid-1990s, after the fall of the USSR.

The Russian national statistics institute, Rosstat, will only publish its final annual data in February 2023. But the researchers contacted have little doubt about the upheavals to come, and the consequences of the conflict in the neighboring country.

The first unknown is the weight of the two waves of departures abroad: after the beginning of the invasion in February 2022, then at the time of mobilization in September 2022, from which many Russians wished to escape. The borders of several neighboring countries (Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia ...) of Russia have seen thousands of citizens wanting to leave the country.

Even in its most peaceful years, Russia underestimated the number of those who left the territory for long periods. In particular, Russian emigrants do not always report their departure to the state authorities. It is therefore necessary to turn to the data of the host countries, but they do not always have well-established statistics.

The Ministry of Interior of Georgia reports the entry of 112,733 Russian citizens into the country between January and September 2022, without providing figures on the final settlements. “We are witnessing a huge influx of Russians,” also said the governor of the Armenian Central Bank, Martin Galstyan, referring to “talented and well-trained people and a possible lasting effect.” The institution expects growth of 13%, up from 7% before the war.

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Some 32,000 Russian migrants have been registered in Israel, a very significant increase over last year. In Western Europe, the balance of arrivals and departures hovers around 38,000, according to Frontex data, which does not allow for the number of installations.

The Russian brain drain is problematic for the future of Russia

Estimates today range from 500,000 departures, subtracting returns, to 1.5 million. This is too large a gap to reach a consensus. Moreover, there is no indication that these settlements are permanent. Some of those who fled the country may have had no intention of leaving and only wanted to avoid fighting, killing Ukrainians, or being killed.

It is therefore too early to assess the impact of these departures in the medium term.

In past major crises, the Soviet strategy was to close the border to departures, which has been less true this year. Some of these Russians, moreover, continue to work for their employers on a telecommuting basis. The question is whether these exiles intend to return to Russia once the situation has stabilized. What is certain, however, is that the current emigration is higher than the net migration in recent years.

A heterogeneous population has left Russia, but most of them are city dwellers who have the opportunity to avoid listening to propaganda on TV screens and can receive independent information on the Internet. A brain drains already characteristic of Russia before the war. After the mass protests in 2011, the repression contributed to accelerating the exodus.

Russian computer scientists used to form entire colonies in Cyprus and New Zealand. Now, new colonies are forming in Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, Montenegro, and Turkey ... Some university professors are also leaving, and Moscow's universities are already suffering significant losses.

Combat losses are still unknown

Military losses are still shrouded in mystery, as Russia (like Ukraine) does not provide any official data on the subject. Because of censorship, it took half a century for a more or less reliable assessment of the USSR's losses in the Second World War. Most statisticians assume a minimum of 50,000 deaths, including the Donbas militia.

The experts interviewed anticipate the consequences for the birth rate, an Achilles heel of Russian demography. The “Maternity Capital” campaign launched in 2006 by Vladimir Putin briefly boosted fertility, with a bonus for the second and third births. Couples are rushing to have a second child for the sake of opportunity, but that doesn't mean they will have more children in the end. Experts just refer to a “timing effect.”

Alexei Raksha, an independent demographer, belies this analysis: “Since 2007, the 'Maternity Capital' program has brought in between 2 and 2.5 million additional children who would never have been born otherwise.” “The fertility decline,” he explains, “is related to the decision in mid-January 2020 to pay most of these subsidies at the first child, not the second. Thus, the current fertility decline is almost exclusively due to the contraction of second births.”

“The program was effective when it was aimed at the second or subsequent children. Moving it from the first child is demographic nonsense,” for Alexei Raksha.

The fertility rate is expected to be around 1.44 this year, according to Alexei Raksha's calculations: 1.3 million births in 2022, compared to 1.89 million deaths. In October 2022, the number of births was already down by 10% compared to the same month in 2021, according to regional vital statistics. “In January and February 2023, the fall in the fertility rate is expected to accelerate further,” continued Alexei Raksha, regardless of the war.

The deterioration is linked to government procrastination in extending two key measures: a subsidy of 450,000 rubles from the third child and a “family mortgage” with a reduced interest rate now extended to the first child. The fertility rate will decline further in 2023 (between 1.25 and 1.32) and 2024 (between 1.16 and 1.30).

The birth rate in difficulty

The war will further deteriorate this already gloomy situation, especially since the annual decline in the number of women of childbearing age is estimated at 3%. The mobilization and flight of hundreds of thousands of Russians, most of them young men, could lead to a drop in fertility of about 4 to 5%, according to Alexei Raksha, who points out that "there were 14-15 million men aged 20 to 35 in Russia in February 2022.

It is still necessary to take into account the decrease in real expenditures, a strong indicator to anticipate the decline in fertility, starting from the second child. Since March 2022, due to inflation linked to the sanctions, in particular, these are down by 7% to 10%.

The psychological effects will also have repercussions, the extent of which is difficult to estimate. After the war in Afghanistan (1979-1989), many Soviet soldiers were psychologically unable to work, study and start a family. Russian demographers also point to an increase in domestic violence, alcohol, and drug abuse, and increased loneliness among young women in a tight “marriage market.”

Whatever happens from now on, the consequences of this war in Ukraine triggered by Putin will be catastrophic for the demography of Russia.

Finally, the crisis should handicap the implementation of family policies in a war-oriented economy. The sanctions will also have consequences for the financing of public equipment (hospitals, health establishments, etc.), which will be neglected in favor of military equipment. The war has already begun to produce effects at the end of November 2022, but it will be necessary to wait until January 10, 2023, to have data on December 2022.

The gaping holes of a war-oriented Russian economy

The consequences on life expectancy, however, remain difficult to anticipate, especially since the Covid-19 pandemic has passed. In 2020-2021, Russia has lost several years in terms of life expectancy, with one million excess deaths, and this is much more than the majority of other countries.

In the long run, only large immigration flows could allow the population to grow. Flows from Central Asia (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, etc.) have mitigated the population decline, with a positive balance of several hundred thousand people. This immigration, however, is highly dependent on the economic situation.

What about Russia which is losing its attractiveness, while the country was already experiencing a shortage of labor before the war? And what about future reparations to Ukraine? No one can predict these developments during the catastrophic decline of a war-oriented economy. The next release of Rosstat data, in February 2023, will be closely followed by researchers and policymakers.

Finally, the mobilization swallowed 300,000 people, or more, according to some NGOs. As a result, “the working-age population in the big cities has shrunk significantly,” comments Natalya Zubarevich, a researcher at Moscow State University, in an interview with the investigative media Agentstvo. One-third of industrial enterprises are now facing a labor shortage, according to a survey by the Gaidar Institute in Moscow. New waves of mobilization could make the situation even worse.

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