Here Is China’s Biggest Threat in Its Plan To Overtake America
Demography is the main adversary for China.
Since the arrival of Xi Jinping at the head of China, the country has not stopped progressing in the great objective that the Chinese Communist Party pursues for the future. This goal is nothing less than to become the world's leading power ahead of America in the future.
All of China's long-term projects are aimed at achieving this level of world domination. The Chinese Communist Party will then be responsible for redistributing all the wealth created in the most egalitarian way possible. Because China has a vision opposed to the Western one: it is above all an egalitarian country where everything is decided at the highest level of the State.
The figures do not lie, and everything indicates that China could overtake America on the economic level at least in the next 20 years.
China is giving itself the means to achieve its ambitions since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013
To give himself the best chance to reach this ultra-ambitious goal, Xi Jinping launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project as soon as he came to power. It is the priority of the Chinese government in the years to come. A titanic project of construction of ports, rail, and land infrastructures all around the world.
The BRI project should allow China to supply itself with raw materials while exporting its immense surplus of goods produced on its territory. This unique initiative of China must be seen as a tool for restructuring global governance. Originally, this project was to encompass 68 countries, but more than 100 countries have now joined the project.
In conjunction with this project, China has understood that it must end the domination of the US dollar over the world. As long as oil is denominated in US dollars, America has an exorbitant privilege. China simply does not want it anymore. It is no coincidence that China was the first country to launch the race for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) with its e-CNY, which will be imposed on countries participating in the BRI project.
With its e-CNY, China is pursuing two goals: to better control its population by eliminating cash from its territory, but also to try to benefit from the first-mover advantage in a decisive field in a future where everything will become digital.
Finally, like Russia, China has been pursuing a de-dollarization policy for several years. The country has put an end to its purchases of US Treasury bonds, while constantly increasing its gold reserves. Slowly, but surely. All this while pushing its population to accumulate as much as possible in parallel.
China's main obstacle to achieving its goal is its aging population
With so many assets, many people believe that America will not be able to compete with the emergence of China in the years to come. Yet China faces a growing threat that may well prevent it from achieving its greatest goal in the future. This enemy is all the more difficult to combat because it concerns a structural limitation of China.
This threat was confirmed recently with the release of China's 2020 birth rate.
The birth rate collapsed last year to its lowest level in more than 40 years, despite the Communist regime's efforts to convince families to expand. Despite allowing Chinese people in 2016 to have two children and then three in 2021, Beijing faces the risk of an aging population and a declining number of working people.
Despite the COVID-19 epidemic that confined millions of couples to their homes in early 2020, the birth rate fell sharply last year to 8.52 births per 1,000 people, according to the 2021 Statistical Yearbook. This is the lowest figure since the yearbook began publication in 1978. In 2019, the birth rate still stood at 10.41 births per 1,000 population. Last year's figure would even be the lowest since the founding of the communist regime in 1949, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Government incentives seem to have little effect on households, which are facing rising living costs, especially for education and housing. The number of marriages also plummeted last year, falling to a 17-year low, with only 8.14 million couples getting married. The number of divorces also fell for the first time in more than 30 years, after a one-month reflection period was imposed on couples wanting to separate in early 2020.
However, no less than 4.34 million couples divorced last year, more than half the number of marriages. The Chinese statistics sometimes raise doubts. The Bloomberg agency has calculated that the number of births was reduced by 11.6 million between 2000 and 2010 due to differences between the annual figures of the National Bureau of Statistics and the results of the decennial censuses.
In any case, demography is the main adversary for China in its plan to surpass America. An adversary that could make China old before it can become rich. The central power in Beijing is of course aware of this major problem in its strategy, and it will be necessary to know what it will try to put in place in the months and years to come to try to reverse the trend.
This is the great objective of the Chinese Communist Party for the future.
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