Finland Wants To Join NATO: Vladimir Putin in a Nightmare.
Putin's strategy in Ukraine is a total failure.
The return of the boomerang is particularly violent for Vladimir Putin. By invading Ukraine, Putin thought he would reduce the Western influence and show weakness. Instead, Vladimir Putin has only strengthened the West by giving NATO a new raison d'être.
From now on, the democracies surrounding Russia are throwing themselves one after the other into the arms of the European Union: Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. All these countries are driven by the same conviction: that they have no other choice because of Vladimir Putin's expansionist ambitions.
By announcing its decision to join NATO, while encouraging its Swedish neighbor to do the same, Finland inflicts on Putin an even more stinging slap. Finland thus decides to put an end to its military neutrality and to the friendship treaty that bound it to Moscow since the end of the Second World War.
A few weeks were enough to erase several decades of non-alignment with the West.
Above all, Finland is realizing Vladimir Putin's worst nightmare: an extension of NATO to the gates of his country. The 1,300 kilometers of borders that Russia shares with Finland will thus double the contact line between Russian and NATO lands. Far from accelerating the course of history, the master of the Kremlin has upset it.
Just a year ago, only 20% of Finns wanted to join NATO. Today, four times as many want their country to join NATO. This is incredible revenge for the Atlantic organization that French President Emmanuel Macron said was dead only three years ago.
But there is no reason for optimism: these new memberships pose great risks for Europe. The first is to feed Putin's paranoia about an alleged Western offensive. This paranoia will encourage Putin to reinforce his military means on the outskirts of Finland, as he has already been doing for several weeks in the enclave of Kaliningrad.
Where will this escalation lead us, especially if Russia then seeks to test our resolve?
No one knows. The threat is immediate for Helsinki and Stockholm, which will have to wait several months to join NATO and will therefore not be formally covered by the principle of mutual defense. I am referring here to the famous Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
Even if the United Kingdom guarantees their defense, Finland and Sweden will remain vulnerable to the threats of retaliation that the Kremlin has renewed in recent days.
The third risk is that, as NATO regains its raison d'être with the threat posed by Putin to the countries of Eastern Europe, European defense will lose its own. Despite great promises, the countries of the European Union have not yet launched any project to give it substance.
The American nuclear umbrella remains much more convincing than the European one. The fact that Berlin and Helsinki ordered American fighter planes rather than French ones has proven this again very recently. The advocates of a more autonomous Europe in terms of defense will have to find the means to turn their words into deeds. And put an end to this annoying European preference for America.
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