Even if Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin Are United, the Chinese and Russian Calendars Differ.
America has still not found a way to blur the Sino-Russian partnership.
On June 15, 2022, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping had a long telephone conversation. Analyzing in detail what they said to each other, as well as the topics they avoided, tells us about the state of relations between the two Asian giants, sworn enemies fifty years ago, and great friends today.
According to a statement by the Chinese state news agency Xinhua, the two leaders welcomed the continued progress of political and trade relations between Russia and China since the beginning of the year, in an international environment described as “turbulent”. This “turbulence” on the planet seems to have descended from the sky like a cloud on the Hebrews in the desert, because the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, is not mentioned.
It is undeniable that the Russian-Chinese trade relations have progressed. In one year, Chinese imports of Russian oil and gas have increased by more than 55%. At the beginning of June 2022, the first highway bridge between the Chinese and Russian territories was opened. Measuring 1,300 meters long and 15 meters wide, this bridge spans the Amur River, connecting the cities of Heihe and Blagoveshchensk. China has replaced Europe as the leading supplier of manufactured goods to Russia.
In 1969, border incidents between the Chinese and Russians resulted in hundreds of deaths. Today, the two nations are increasing the number of joint military maneuvers, on land and at sea, to remind the Americans that they will not be the masters of the Pacific Ocean for much longer.
The two great military powers of North Asia agree that the Americans are fundamentally unwelcome intruders in this region of the world. Together, they do not tolerate American interference in their internal affairs under the guise of human rights concerns. They have decided to help each other defend their respective sovereignty and security. China did not condemn at the United Nations the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this telephone conversation, Vladimir Putin repeated that Russia would oppose all external interference in Chinese internal affairs, including Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
But this Russo-Chinese strategic alignment against Western pretensions to regulate international relations does not mean that the two powers have the same agendas. Their objectives and timetables differ.
Putin is playing for time in Ukraine, confident of winning this war of attrition
Vladimir Putin has decided to play for time because he considers that the West cannot resist the constraints of time. He does not seem willing to shorten his “special military operation” in Ukraine. In the Donbas, he is advancing slowly, but surely. By the end of 2022, the Russian army will likely have conquered the entire Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Putin recognized the independence of these secessionist Russian-speaking republics two days before the start of his invasion of Ukraine. It is likely that these two republics, after a referendum, will ask to be attached to Russia. Putin will then have a narrative for his population: “I have brought back to the bosom of the motherland our Russian brothers, who otherwise would have perished under the yoke of the Ukrainian Nazis”.
He will also fortify his two great war prizes: the city of Kherson, on the western bank of the Dnieper, which controls the irrigation of the Crimea via a canal; and the mega-nuclear power plant of Zaporijjia, which includes six 1,000 MW reactors. And he will wait until the Ukrainians are tired of fighting and the West is tired of helping them before making peace proposals. Does he intend to attack Odesa to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea? Unfortunately, this is a hypothesis to consider.
Xi Jinping wants stability as the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party looms
The Chinese agenda is different. Xi Jinping wants an end to the war in Ukraine as soon as possible - this is said in the conclusion of the Xinhua statement. He does not want it to poison the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, to be held in November 2022.
The resistance of the Ukrainian people is a bad example for the Taiwanese. Xi Jinping would like us to forget this unfortunate war started by an allied, but predatory Russia, behaving like Japan in 1937. Finally, the Chinese president fears as much as the Westerners the economic slowdown caused by the war. For Chinese factories to continue to operate, Beijing needs a level of Western consumption that does not fall.
In the eyes of America, Putin and Xi are “two bad fellows with different dreams”. It is a complicated situation, which is why America has not yet found a way to confuse them.
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