Climate Change Is Not Sparing China, Whose Growth Is Facing a New Threat: An Unprecedented Drought.
Xi Jinping's blue sky battle is forgotten, and coal production is revived.
Climate change does not spare China.
In recent weeks, Xi Jinping's country has experienced deadly floods in the northwest of the country, which is usually relatively arid, an exceptional drought along the Yangtze River, which is typically fiery, and temperatures often exceeding 40 degrees, recorded in a third of the country's weather stations.
By the middle of last week, the toll was already overwhelming: 17 people died and many were injured due to flooding and flash flooding in Datong, a mountainous district of Qinghai, a province bordering Tibet.
The tragedy came ironically at a time when much of the country is suffering from exceptional drought and - from Shaanxi in the north to Guangdong in the south - temperatures not seen since records began in 1961.
The drought mainly affects Hubei, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Hunan, and the megalopolis of Chongqing. In these provinces, through which the Yangtze River flows, temperatures are, according to the authorities, about six degrees higher than normal. And there is now a severe lack of water.
In Sichuan, a province with 83 million inhabitants, the rivers have seen their flow drop by 20% to 50%. In Wuhan (Hubei), the Yangtze has never been so low. In Jiangxi, the country's largest freshwater lake, Lake Poyang, has lost three-quarters of its surface area due to a lack of rainfall. It now covers only 737 square kilometers, compared to 2,203 in 2021 at the same time. The lake officially entered its dry season on August 6, 69 days earlier on average than in the last twenty years. In Jiangxi as in other provinces, the drought that has lasted since mid-June is expected to continue into September, according to experts.
Power cuts affecting businesses and individuals alike
As a result, hydroelectric production, which provides 80% of the electricity in Sichuan and 17% of the power produced in China, is at its lowest. It has fallen by 26% in July 2022 compared to July 2021. In many cities and provinces, the authorities must now manage this shortage. The problem is made more difficult by the fact that this heat wave makes it even more necessary to use air conditioning, which consumes a lot of energy, and that the energy demand is reaching record levels.
In Sichuan, 19 of the 21 cities called on Sunday, August 14, 2022, for the industrialists to stop their production for one week to favor the residential areas. Among the companies affected: car manufacturers such as Toyota or Volkswagen, Foxconn which assembles Apple's Ipad, and the world's largest manufacturer of batteries for electric cars, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL). Downstream, in Shanghai, Tesla has complained of supply problems.
Even so, individuals are not spared.
In Dazhou (5 million inhabitants), the electricity supplier warned that it might reduce household electricity consumption to two and a half hours a day. On social networks, testimonies show that the cuts are more frequent than the authorities admit.
“Why was there no electricity for a week in Santai County without us being notified?” asks a Chinese man.
On August 17, 2022, the megalopolis of Chongqing (30 million inhabitants including its suburbs) saw the mercury rise to 44.6°C, a record. The city, which is home to several car manufacturers, asked industrialists and shopping centers to reduce or stop their activities until August 24, 2022. According to the Chinese press, two other provinces, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, have taken similar measures.
Chinese authorities revive coal production
If the power cuts are not yet comparable to those suffered by the country in August and September 2021, they can only contribute to slowing down a growth that is already undermined by Xi Jinping's zero-covid health policy.
Most Western forecasters are now betting on a growth of less than 3.5% this year, 2 points lower than the Chinese government hopes. The drought could also have important repercussions on the level of harvests and therefore on the price of foodstuffs, an issue that is always sensitive in China.
To compensate for the shortage of hydroelectric power, the Chinese authorities have revived the production of coal, in the fall of 2021. Coal consumption increased by 15% during the first two weeks of August 2022, compared to the same period in 2021. While the zero-covid policy remains unchanged - the port of Xiamen has even extended the tests to fresh fish and shellfish - the authorities are reversing the relative disgrace that coal was subjected to. Priority to supporting the economy and social stability.
“We must guarantee the supply of electricity to the population,” said Han Zheng, vice-premier, on Wednesday 17 August 2022, adding that the government would take multiple measures to help coal-fired power plants alleviate the current difficulties. As the Communist Party holds its 20th Congress in the fall of 2022, no doubt everything will be done to boost growth and reduce power outages.
Launched by Xi Jinping in 2017, the “Battle for Blue Skies” marks an unprecedented pause.
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