Can Vladimir Putin Decide Alone to Use the Russian Nuclear Weapon on Ukraine?
Some thoughts on the subject through answers to 5 big questions that everyone is asking.
The use of nuclear weapons is subject to certain rules, even in a country that has become a dictatorship like Putin's Russia. However, the execution of these rules remains largely opaque and in the hands of Vladimir Putin. This gives rise to many fantasies in the minds of everyone, and it seems important to answer several questions on the subject.
Indeed, in the face of victorious Ukrainian counter-offensives, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has repeatedly raised the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the ongoing war. U.S. President Joe Biden warned on Thursday, October 6, 2022, of a risk of “the nuclear apocalypse,” for the first time since the Cold War.
However, it remains unclear at this time how real this nuclear threat could become.
What nuclear weapons does Russia have?
Russia's nuclear power is significant, but it is complicated to assess it accurately because little information is available on the subject. According to data from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, dated February 2022, Russia has 5977 nuclear warheads, but not all of them are deployed and operational.
This figure also includes both tactical nuclear weapons, and strategic nuclear weapons. Tactical nuclear weapons have a range of 500 kilometers. Strategic nuclear weapons can do Moscow-Washington. If tactical weapons are defined as being weaker than strategic weapons, they are still very powerful nuclear weapons.
So we are talking about a serious arsenal, which kills, and is roughly equivalent to that of Hiroshima. We are talking about something dangerous that puts populations at risk.
In what cases can Putin use nuclear weapons?
The Russian doctrine provides that Vladimir Putin can use nuclear weapons if Russia is attacked and if this attack endangers the existence of the country. If it is Ukraine that is being attacked at the moment, the Russian president has repeatedly reminded us that the annexed regions in Ukraine are now Russian to him and that any attack on these lands would be considered an attack on Russia.
The subtlety of this framework is that it is Vladimir Putin who defines what corresponds to “endangering the country's existence.” The notion is broad and a bit vague, which means that the cases that can fall under it are potentially numerous.
Piotr Tolstoy, vice-president of the Duma, assured this week that he was “sure that we will not use nuclear weapons. We have a doctrine, so the law is very clear on that and we can use it only if there is an existential threat to the entire Russian territory.”
Who decides to use nuclear force?
According to Russian law, Vladimir Putin decides alone. But Russia has also inherited the Soviet system of collective decision, where the agreement of the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces was necessary. Is this still the case today? The answer is unclear; it is not clear whether these two military officials have any real blocking power on the nuclear issue.
However, several experts point out that if these two military officials were a brake for the Russian president, he would only have to replace them with people who would approve of his plans.
Michel Yakovleff, a former vice-chief of staff of the Supreme Headquarters of the Allied Powers in Europe (NATO), recently pointed out that the military personnel responsible for carrying out the nuclear launch could also oppose such a decision. This is “hundreds of people, hundreds of people, some of whom are critical of the system.”
According to Michel Yakovleff, what is holding Putin back “is the fear of disobedience, this is what I call the ultimate test of loyalty. He is afraid that by giving such an extreme order where everyone will be transfixed - thinking 'no but here we are changing the world and I also have a family and I would like us to avoid the third extinction' - some guys will say 'ah no there, I stop'.”
Will Putin press the red button?
Aside from the threats in the Russian president's words, there are no signs today of preparations, no signs of an imminent attack. “We have no reason to adjust our strategic nuclear posture, nor do we have any indication that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons,” White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said Friday, Oct. 7, 2022, after Joe Biden's alarming remarks.
“Several U.S. officials have seen no signs of any preparation for the use of nuclear weapons, despite Putin's somewhat irresponsible attempts at intimidation recently,” former CIA boss David Petraeus also said.
Experts also say that if Russia were planning a nuclear attack, it would be seen and known. Nuclear storage sites across the country are under constant surveillance by satellites, foreign intelligence, and military surveillance services. If there was a threat of imminent attack, the weapons would have to be taken out of storage, the Russian ground forces would have to be prepared, they would have to be provided with protective equipment and it would not go unnoticed.
Is the dictator Putin just trying to scare people?
For many geopolitical experts, Vladimir Putin would have no interest in carrying out his nuclear threat, but indeed he is scary, look around us in the Western countries, the first question we have today is: “Will Putin use nuclear weapons?”
It is obvious that we have to take very seriously the nuclear threats, that is clear and I think that everyone takes them seriously, but at the same time, we have to keep our heads in the sense that the Russians have no interest in using a nuclear weapon even in a tactical way. Mr. Putin and those around him know very well the reprisals they will face if they use it.
However, some Russian experts are less confident about this situation, because even if it seems illogical for us Westerners to use a nuclear weapon, we should not forget that Putin has locked himself in a Potemkin village for 23 years and that for him such an escalation might seem logical.
The more the Russian dictator loses ground in Ukraine, the weaker he becomes, and the more dangerous he becomes for many. Putin could indeed say to himself that if he uses a nuclear weapon, he would show the whole world that he is still in charge of the situation and that he can define the rules despite the victorious counter-offensives of Ukraine.
We must not exclude the risk of using a nuclear weapon, because the pressure on Putin is growing. It is therefore a real danger.
Some reading
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