By Blocking Odessa, Vladimir Putin’s Russia Is Threatening the World With a Major Food Crisis.
The odious blackmail of Vladimir Putin.
Snake Island is in the hands of Russian forces. On this small rock off the coast of Odesa and not far from the Romanian coast, Vladimir Putin's Russian forces have installed ground-to-air defense capabilities. Fast boats sailing around discourage any approach.
The Russian army is in a position to impose a denial of access to the Gulf of Odesa. The main Ukrainian port is located in Odesa. Since the beginning of the war, Vladimir Putin's navy has taken control of the northern Black Sea, with at least fifty ships at sea. The symbolic loss of the Moskva, its aging flagship, has not changed anything.
Probably four Kilo-class submarines sail under the surface of the water. Lacking naval capabilities, the Ukrainians are protecting what remains of their coastline with land-based defenses. Equipped with Harpoon anti-ship missiles with a range of 160 km, promised by Denmark, they will theoretically be able to threaten their adversary a little further offshore. The landmines deployed mainly by Ukrainian forces opposite Odesa protect and block the port. Nothing can enter or leave the port. And especially not grain ships.
Before the invasion, Ukraine was the world's fifth-largest exporter of wheat and fourth-largest exporter of corn:
Russia was the leading exporter and a major supplier of fertilizer. The two countries accounted for 30% of grain exports. The war has shattered this economic balance, caused prices to soar, and threatened the world, especially Africa, with a major food crisis.
“25 million tons of grain are reportedly ready to be shipped” from Ukraine, according to U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield. “We support all efforts to get Ukrainian grain to market,” she said recently. “Eighty-four Ukrainian ships have been blocked in the Black Sea,” she noted. Before the war, Ukraine exported 5 million tons of wheat per month, today, less than one million tons.
At the UN, discreet negotiations have been initiated to try to find a solution to the blockade. So far, they have been unsuccessful. Turkey is also conducting intense diplomatic discussions, taking advantage of its key position. Ankara controls access to the Black Sea via the Bosphorus Strait. It is also careful to maintain dialogue with its Russian partner.
Between Russia and Turkey, a troubled game is at work. Russia is suspected of diverting Ukrainian grain and exporting it discreetly to the Mediterranean. The Ukrainian embassy in Lebanon has accused Russia of having stolen 100,000 tons of grain from Ukraine and sent it to Syria.
Putin uses hunger and wheat to consolidate his power through odious blackmail
Vladimir Putin is also using the agricultural crisis to try to break his isolation. “Russia is ready to help find options for unhindered grain exports, including Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports,” the Russian president said last week in a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
With a certain irony, Moscow said it was ready to authorize “corridors” to allow the transit of grain ships on the condition that Ukraine first ensured the demining of its port of Odesa. During a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin also assured that Russia could "export large quantities of fertilizers and agricultural products if the anti-Russian sanctions were canceled.
You see there appear the contours of odious blackmail that Vladimir Putin is currently conducting on the world.
“The global community is aware of Vladimir Putin's weaponization of the food issue,” the Pentagon lamented last week. Russia is “using hunger and wheat to consolidate its power,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen denounced, accusing Russian artillery of deliberately targeting Ukrainian grain silos.
Liberating Odessa militarily is out of reach and out of the question for the Allies. “Currently, the sea lanes are blocked by mines and by the Russian navy,” U.S. Chief of Staff General Milley said Tuesday. “To open those sea lanes would require a very significant military effort by a country or group of countries,” he warned. Securing passageways would also be perilous. It would require maritime surveillance and demining capabilities. At least five drifting mines have been spotted since the war began. For the moment, the threat is considered low by Western navies.
In any case, the access of military vessels to the Black Sea is regulated by the Montreux Convention, under the responsibility of Turkey. It prohibits such access without two weeks' notice to Ankara.
If solutions are not found quickly, 1.4 billion people will be affected by the food crisis that Putin wants to trigger
The West is looking for other solutions to open up routes for Ukrainian grain without getting into the hands of the Kremlin autocrat Vladimir Putin. A part of the Ukrainian production transits by land to Romania, a NATO member country. As a coastal country, the Romanian navy has the right to travel in the Black Sea, outside the Russian blockade zones, and to transit through the Bosporus. The port of Constanta is open.
“For two months, merchant traffic has resumed, notes a military source. But the Romanian ports do not have significant capacity,” it continues, citing a ratio of one to ten with the possibilities of Odessa.
This is insufficient to meet the demand. To get around the maritime blockade, Ukraine is also trying to export its production by land. A “railway bridge” has been set up by Germany. The Deutsche Bahn “is moving massive amounts of grain out of Ukraine, via Poland to northern German ports for export,” said U.S. General Christopher Cavoli, the next head of U.S. forces in Europe, last week.
The situation is urgent. “Failure to reopen Ukrainian ports will cause famine, destabilization, and mass migration around the world,” said Amin Awad, the UN coordinator for the crisis in Ukraine. According to him, 1.4 billion people could be affected by this odious blackmail that Putin is conducting on the West and the rest of the world.
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