Boris Johnson Leaves 10 Downing Street, but the Brexit Remains.
Let's hope that his successor will show more pragmatism and decency to defend the long-term interests of the United Kingdom.
Five and a half years after playing a decisive role in the British vote for Brexit, three years after succeeding Theresa May, whose authority he had undermined, Boris Johnson leaves power pitifully after losing the confidence of 57 out of 120 members of his cabinet.
The immediate reason for his downfall is to be found in the endless litany of scandals and lies that have become the Prime Minister's trademark. The root cause lies in his populism, which has left the United Kingdom, in the Queen's Golden Jubilee year, permanently weakened and divided.
Boris Johnson is the political leader who has had the greatest impact on the fate of the United Kingdom since Margaret Thatcher, whose liberal reforms ended the long decline of the post-World War II era. He will go down in history as the man behind the UK's exit from the European Union, for having brought it to a vote in the 2016 referendum, for having it validated in the December 2019 elections, and then for having implemented it on 31 December 2020. But he is also the one who has constantly sought to conceal the disastrous consequences.
Johnson's entire term as prime minister has been one of crisis. But his management has been just like him, erratic and unpredictable, alternating serious errors and brilliant improvisations, guided by a succession of media stunts that have been free of any form of coherence or responsibility.
After tragically faltering during the first wave of Covid, Johnson recovered in extremis with his winning bet on vaccination. The United Kingdom, with 23 million cases and 181,000 deaths, paid a very heavy price. Despite its early deconfinement, it did not return to its 2019 level of activity until early 2022, a year after the United States and six months after the European Union.
During the invasion of Ukraine, Johnson responded with extreme firmness, seeking to embody the resistance of Western democracies to authoritarian empires. He welcomed and accompanied the return in force of the United States and NATO in Europe. Not without paradox, since Boris Johnson did not hesitate to militate for the rapid accession of Ukraine to the European Union, which he never stopped seeing the United Kingdom leave.
Far from the mirages of the Global Britain project that was supposed to compete victoriously with the European Union, Johnson's legacy is an economy in turmoil. The recovery has failed and growth will plateau at around 2% this year and 0.9% in 2023. Inflation is over 10% and has spiraled out of control despite Bank of England rate hikes, with gas and electricity prices soaring by 54%. Household living standards will fall by 4% this year. Business investment is stagnating. Politically, the United Kingdom is threatened with implosion.
In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon has announced a new independence referendum. In Ireland, the crisis caused by Johnson's refusal to implement the protocol signed with the European Union has led, for the first time, to the victory of Sinn Féin, which is campaigning for the reunification of the island in the elections of May 5, 2022, which has unleashed the fury of the DUP unionists.
The rising risks facing the United Kingdom are inextricably linked to its inability to overcome the shock of Brexit. Lacking will and preparation, the United Kingdom is not keeping any of its commitments to the European Union, which is poisoning relations with its main partner. Disputes are multiplying endlessly, from vaccines to the customs status of Northern Ireland, from fishing rights to migrant flows and financial regulation, creating the risk of a destructive trade war.
The headwinds blowing through the British economy are only partly related to the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict and are mainly due to Brexit. The price increases and wage inflationary spiral began with the fall in imports and the labor shortages in agriculture, construction, health care, and services caused by the departure of more than one million European workers.
As a true populist, Boris Johnson has sacrificed his country to his obsessive quest for power by playing on collective passions and lying to his fellow citizens. It will be up to his successors to try to disarm this infernal machine by bringing decency, pragmatism, and the defense of the UK's long-term interests back to 10 Downing Street.
Some reading
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