Between War, Populism, and Authoritarianism, Half of the World’s Democracies Are in Peril.

Demonstrations in China and Iran give a fragile glimmer of hope to this dark year of 2022. But the overall picture is worrying, according to the think tank Idea.

Democratic institutions are under attack, civil liberties threatened, and elections contested ... These symptoms of a sick democracy continue to spread throughout the world, according to the alarming report by the think tank Idea. In its latest annual report “The Global State of Democracy 2022: Forging Social Contracts in a Time of Discontent,” Idea asserts that half of all democracies will be in decline by 2022.

Certainly, some encouraging signals for the defense of rights and freedoms have emerged this year.

In China, anger and frustration with Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy led to a mobilization on a scale not seen in decades to demand an end to restrictions and more freedoms. And in Iran, the death in September 2022 of the young Mahsa Amini, after her arrest by the vice police, triggered a movement of protests of a rare magnitude against the current government.

These demonstrations were harshly repressed, but they show the strong aspirations of a part of the population “for new and more open societies, as well as a more responsible leadership," say the authors of the study. On the African continent too, things are moving: “Citizen action in several countries has created opportunities to renegotiate the social contract,” the think tank points out. Countries such as Gambia, Niger, and Zambia are praised for “improving their democratic quality.”

A “myriad of problems”

But alongside these examples, the overall picture is worrying. Already, between 2016 and 2021, the number of countries moving toward authoritarian regimes was more than double the number moving toward democracy, the report's authors recall. “During this period, 27 countries experienced a deterioration in their regime classification, while only 13 improved,” they note.

The world also lost two democracies last year: Myanmar and Tunisia.

The year 2022 and its multiple crises have undoubtedly made the situation worse. “By the end of 2022, the world is trapped under the weight of a myriad of problems causing political and economic instability, including soaring food and energy prices and a looming recession,” says Kevin Casas-Zamora, secretary general of the Sweden-based organization, in the report.

All of these phenomena are occurring in an unstable context marked by climate change, the persistent COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine.

Authoritarianism is on the rise

It is in these evils that the roots of the evil lie. They are illustrated by a surge in populism, particularly on the European continent. The arrival of Giorgia Meloni as the head of Italy is one of the most recent examples. The leader of the Fratelli d'Italia party, a post-fascist formation she founded in 2013, has built her success on a program advocating a heightened economic patriotism, rejecting the “welfare mentality” and European migration policies.

“Far-right forces challenge some key democratic principles. In general, these parties promise a renegotiation of the social contract in discriminatory, regressive, and often unrealistic terms,” deciphers the think tank.

In this context of crisis, authoritarian regimes thrive. This is particularly the case in Afghanistan, Belarus, Cambodia, Comoros, and Nicaragua. In these countries, it is the electoral processes that are under attack, “suggesting that even maintaining the façade of elections is a struggle,” the authors lament.

The Middle East continues to be “the most authoritarian region in the world,” with only three democracies: Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon.

The decline of American democracy

Of the 173 countries surveyed, seven were experiencing serious democratic erosion. The list includes Brazil, El Salvador, Hungary, Poland, India, Mauritius, and the United States. Across the Atlantic, “threats to democracy persist after the Trump presidency, illustrated by polarization and the rollback of long-established rights, such as the overturning of Roe v. Wade on abortion rights,” the report points out.

For the study's authors, priority must be given to implementing policies that “reduce corruption and restore public trust,” to renew social contracts. In their view, “our collective ability to come together, locally and internationally, to pursue the civic design of these contracts will determine the fate of democracy in the years ahead.”

---

Some reading

• Army, Grain, Energy, NATO, … Putin’s War in Ukraine Allows America to Win on All Fronts. Behind this success, Joe Biden, who many saw as being at the end of his rope and practically senile when he arrived at the White House.

• America Will Be the Dominant Power Before China in the Next Thirty Years. Here Is Why. The only pitfall that could prevent this American domination is the political instability into which the country could fall.

• Tesla Amid a Paradox — Record Sales but Bad Buzz and Plunging Stock Price. The manufacturer, which has never sold so many vehicles, is accumulating recalls and is suffering from Elon Musk’s stance.

• The Real Lessons of FTX’s Failure Are to Be Found in Effective Altruism. A movement which Sam Bankman-Fried claimed promptly to build a character to better deceive his world.

• On All Fronts, Elon Musk Hopes to Test Neuralink’s Implants on Human Brains Within Six Months. Elon Musk wants to revolutionize the treatment of several diseases by allowing patients to communicate directly with machines.