As History Teaches Us, It Is the Russian People Who Hold the Key to Ending Putin’s War in Ukraine.

Even the most ferocious dictators cannot survive without the consent of the people.

More than 50 days after the beginning of the Russian military offensive in Ukraine, we are still wondering what will put an end to this odious war decided by Vladimir Putin. However, there are many reasons, from a coup against Vladimir Putin to a negotiated settlement of the conflict.

Nevertheless, if history is any guide, there is one reason in particular that always brings about the end of senseless wars like the one currently being waged by Vladimir Putin's Russia in Ukraine.

Since the advent of mass media, all dictators, but also the leaders of Western democracies, have used and abused this media to justify the wars they have waged. They make films, and posters, and invent stories. Today, social media are the scene of a real propaganda war.

Vladimir Putin has created his narrative about the war in Ukraine

What Vladimir Putin is doing today with the fables he is telling the Russian people is the purest example of orchestrated propaganda policy. Putin does not hesitate to tell his people that the Ukrainian regime is a Nazi regime, while Zelensky is of Jewish origin, and that it is not the Russians who are attacking, but that they are being attacked.

Russia would thus be in a defensive position necessary for its survival. Putin likes to use the image of a rat, which is cornered and attacks its aggressor because it has no other choice to ensure its survival.

It is not without reason that the Russian regime pays great attention to its internal communication with the population. In Moscow, it seems that peace reigns. Any protest against the war is brutally suppressed. All dictators do this by locking up information to better manipulate the people and keep their consent.

Because even the most bloodthirsty dictators cannot last in time without massive popular support. Putin knows this very well.

Hitler's story of the Second World War

Humiliated by the surrender of the 6th German Army in Stalingrad, in the winter of 1942-1943, at the end of the greatest battle in history, Hitler wanted to stop the retreat of his armies. On July 5, 1943, the Führer launched a gigantic counter-offensive in the Kursk salient, halfway between Moscow and Kyiv, with an exceptional concentration of tanks and aircraft. Heavily defeated, the Wehrmacht will not stop retreating.

It became more and more difficult to maintain the myth of an unbeatable Germany among the people, whatever the efforts made by the minister of propaganda Joseph Goebbels to control the discourse.

After these humiliating defeats against the Russian empire, Hitler did not even dare to go out and mingle with the people, whereas this had always been his great strength during his rise to power. From then on, Hitler locked himself up in his bunker in Berlin where he died on April 30, 1945.

Humiliating military defeats bring down even the most ferocious and bloodthirsty dictators.

The history of the Vietnam War of Lyndon B. Johnson, but also 4 other American presidents

If we know the history of the Vietnam War very well, it is only from the American perspective. The series of mostly anti-war Hollywood films, from Apocalypse Now to The Deer Hunter, is known to almost everyone.

This may give you the impression that the war in Vietnam was quickly made unpopular in America.

The reality is quite different. A large part of the American population supported the struggle until very late in the war. This is a clear indication of the exacerbated patriotism of Americans, who are capable of uniting behind their military as soon as a war breaks out. In October 1965, according to a Gallup poll, 64% of Americans still supported the war.

That number dropped to 39% in January 1969, marking the beginning of the end. Again, it was the end of popular consent that turned the tide and led to the end of the war in Vietnam.

George Bush's story on the war in Afghanistan

Decidedly specialists in endless wars, the Americans have also waged such a war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In response to the American people's desire for revenge after the September 11 attacks, Operation Enduring Freedom brought American troops to Afghanistan and justified the Guantanamo detention camps.

Shortly after the attacks, 90% of the American population supported the invasion of Afghanistan. Still bruised in the flesh, the people were willing to accept anything to be avenged.

Over the years, the desire for revenge has faded. Support gradually collapsed as it became clear that the situation was desperate and that Western values could not simply be exported to the Afghan Muslim population.

By 2021, over 62% of Americans believed that the war in Afghanistan was no longer worth fighting. To keep the consent of the people, Joe Biden has remained in line with the decision taken by his predecessor Donald Trump by withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan. The manner could have been better, but the withdrawal had become a necessity.

The big question now is how long will the Russians be willing to support Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine?

It is difficult to get reliable figures from Russia on what the Russian people think about Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. Recently, the New Yorker reported that between 65% and 71% of Russians still support Putin's war in Ukraine.

This high level of popular support is more than enough for Putin to continue his war for some time.

The big question is when this support for Putin's war in Ukraine will turn around. You can be sure that there will be such a reversal sooner or later. This is what history teaches us about these senseless wars.

Putin's situation already looks more precarious than it seems, since he promised a lightning war with a stunning Russian victory, and this will not happen. Instead, the Russian people must now face the disastrous consequences of a war of attrition whose end date is unknown.

The key to the end of the war lies, in my opinion, with the Russian people, who will eventually realize that this situation is hopeless for Russia. This may take a long time as history also teaches us. The Vietnam war only ended in 1975 and the war in Afghanistan also lasted more than 20 years.