As European Union Candidates, Ukraine, and Moldova Will Have to Follow a Long and Demanding Path.
Answer to four big questions about what's next for the country of Volodymyr Zelensky.
Meeting on Thursday, June 23, 2022, in Luxembourg, the 27 member countries of the EU have granted the wish of Volodymyr Zelensky. The twenty-seven have just officially granted Ukraine and Moldova the status of candidate states to the European Union. A decision that paves the way for the launch of the accession process for Ukraine and Moldova.
The enthusiasm is palpable, but it must be understood that an accession process does not mean immediate membership. The road ahead for both countries will be demanding and long.
The last country to join the EU was Croatia during the 7th enlargement in 2013. It took ten years for Croatia to be admitted to the EU. At that time, the EU had 28 members. Since then, the United Kingdom left the EU in 2016 in the Brexit, which reduced the number of EU member countries to 27.
To help you see more clearly what lies ahead for Ukraine and Moldova, I propose to answer 4 major questions on the subject.
1. What does EU candidate status mean?
The status of candidate to the European Union is granted after consultation of the European Commission, then a vote in the European Parliament, which must decide by a majority in favor. The Council of Ministers of the EU must finally give its unanimous approval. In the case of Ukraine and Moldova, the European Commission gave a favorable opinion on June 17, 2022.
Georgia's application is still pending: the country must first comply with a list of priorities established by the Commission.
This status does not necessarily mean that the candidate country will join the European Union, but that its desire to join the 27 is considered legitimate and acceptable by the member states. The European Union undertakes to support the candidate country in the reforms it will implement, and to consider its application. The candidate does not benefit from the reciprocal commitments that bind the Member States together. The latter owe each other “aid and assistance by all means in their power” in case of armed conflict.
2. What conditions must candidate states meet to go further?
Once its status is official, the candidate country must define, with the European Commission, a “pre-accession strategy”. This involves determining the reforms to be implemented to comply with European requirements, with the help of a program of support and financial assistance from the European Union. Among the conditions with which the candidate must comply, the “Copenhagen criteria”, established in 1993, are crucial.
There are three of them:
The stability of institutions that must guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and respect for minorities.
The resilience of the market economy, that must be strong enough to cope with competitive pressures.
The capacity of the state to integrate into its national law all existing European standards.
In the case of Ukraine and Moldova, the two countries will have to carry out reforms in the fight against corruption and the independence of the judiciary. The continuing conflict with Russia may also be a significant obstacle.
The fulfillment of these conditions does not necessarily block the progress of the integration process: only the stability of the institutions is a real criterion for launching the negotiation phase. The opening of the latter is decided by the European Council.
3. How are the negotiations organized?
Negotiations then take place with a team of negotiators from the European Commission and are supervised by the Council of the European Union.
More than thirty chapters of EU legislation are addressed, on which progress can be expected from the candidate country. Once all these chapters are closed, the end of the negotiations allows for the drafting of an accession treaty, which must be approved unanimously by the Council of the EU, then by an absolute majority by the European Parliament. Once signed, the country becomes a full member of the European Union.
4. Which other countries are official candidates and since when?
As I told you before, Croatia is the latest state to have officially joined the European Union. It was in July 2013.
Five other states have candidate status: Turkey (since 1999), Northern Macedonia (since 2005), Montenegro (since 2010), Serbia (2012), and Albania (2014). Their case is symptomatic of the long and tedious road to finalizing integration into the European Union.
Among these states, only Serbia and Montenegro are conducting accession negotiations. Turkey's negotiations, for example, have been stalled since 2007.
Despite ambitious reforms, Northern Macedonia, which officially became a candidate in 2005, is also stalled in its accession process. Greece first opposed the opening of negotiations in 2018, then France in 2019, then Bulgaria in 2020, all three countries citing different justifications. Proof that a state can remain a candidate for European integration for more than 15 years, and that this status is more a first step than a guarantee of joining the European Union one day.
The cases of Ukraine, which is currently under attack by Russia, and Moldova, which seems to be a potential Russian target in the future, may seem different due to particular conditions, but both countries will have to follow this long and difficult process to its end.
The road is still long before Ukraine or Moldova can integrate into the European Union.
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