6 Questions About Transnistria, This Moldavian Region That Vladimir Putin Could Be Looking at Now.
#6: Is war likely?
The concern is growing in Moldova. Already under pressure with the reception of some 400,000 refugees from neighboring Ukraine, this small central European state fears that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict will spill over its borders. The cause: incidents that occurred in the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria, but also statements by a Russian general indicating that Transnistria could well be a target during the military operation currently conducted by the Russian Army.
I propose you focus on this region and its links with Moscow through 6 questions.
1. What is Transnistria?
Transnistria is an autonomous region located on the eastern flank of Moldova. This territory of 4,100 square kilometers is wedged between the Dniester River (from which it takes its name) and the Ukrainian border. It has 500,000 inhabitants, one-third of whom are of Moldovan origin. The remaining two-thirds are of Russian and Ukrainian origin. The latter speak Russian, while the Moldovans living on the other side of the Dniester speak Romanian. Some Russian speakers in Transnistria have Russian or Ukrainian passports, which reinforces the legal uncertainty of the region.
Although it is not recognized by the UN or any other state, Transnistria has a president (Vadim Krasnosselsky), a capital (Tiraspol), a constitution, a parliament, a central bank, and even a flag decorated with the sickle and hammer, all of which bear witness to a certain nostalgia for the Soviet Union. The region also has its security forces. The only thing Transnistria lacks in comparison to a full state is international recognition.
2. When did the region secede?
Even before the disappearance of the USSR, the region of Transnistria, with a Russian-speaking majority, unilaterally proclaimed its independence in 1990, for fear of a “Romanianization” of Moldova. It even asked to become a Russian enclave. This request was refused at the time by Moscow. With the fall of the USSR in 1991, the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic, which controlled Transnistria at the time, gained independence.
At that time, in Transnistria, there were “red bosses”, i.e. factory managers with privileged economic and political ties to Russia, who chose to play Russia's game, rather than that of Moldova, which, at the time, was beginning to look dangerously towards Romania. Transnistrian independence is not explained by the existence of a Transnistrian ethnic group, which does not exist. It is a question of geopolitical orientation: the local population wanted to be closer to Russia than to Romania.
In March 1992, a war broke out between the regular Moldovan army and the Transnistrian separatists supported by the Russian army. The conflict resulted in thousands of deaths. A cease-fire, signed in July 1992, put an end to hostilities between the Moldovan central government and the separatists but amputated the Transnistrian region from Moldova.
By losing Transnistria, Moldova lost an important industrial basin. In the late 1980s, the region accounted for more than a third of the country's GDP, yet it represented only 11 percent of its area and 17 percent of its population.
3. What is the current situation in Transnistria?
Since 1992, the conflict between Transnistria and Moldova has been frozen. This means that the hostilities have not been closed on any formal agreement allowing a political solution between the two entities. Transnistria and Moldova are trying to negotiate a way out of the crisis. There are regular political contacts. Of all the post-Soviet separatist conflicts, the conflict with Transnistria is the one that has the best chance of being resolved peacefully.
The first “president” of Transnistria, from 1991 to 2011, was Igor Smirnov. The current leader is Vadim Krasnosselski. Both are pro-Russian. The region's economy is based on heavy industry and multiple traffics that transit through the nearby Ukrainian port of Odesa. Sheriff, founded in the early 1990s by two former Soviet policemen, enjoys a virtual economic and political monopoly over Transnistria. The current president, Vadim Krasnosselski, came up through the industrial conglomerate.
In 2015, the investigative media RISE Moldova claimed that a third of the enclave's budget ended up in the coffers of the group, regularly accused of corruption. Between 40 and 60% of the Transnistrian GDP depends on smuggling, particularly of arms and products imported from Ukraine. Highly dependent on the Ukrainian port of Odesa, Transnistria is now suffering from the war in Ukraine, which is weighing on its trade.
Despite its unbridled capitalism, Transnistria is often depicted as an open-air museum of the Soviet era. In the center of its “capital” Tiraspol stands an imposing statue of Lenin. The building of the town hall has kept its original name: the House of Soviets. These are not the only legacies of the Soviet period. According to Amnesty International, basic freedoms are not respected. For example, anyone critical of the authorities is de facto subject to criminal prosecution.
4. What are Transnistria's ties to Russia?
In a 2006 referendum, the result of which is not recognized by the international community, Transnistria voted 97.1 percent in favor of joining Russia, which has never considered the region an independent state. Moscow, however, maintains close ties with the separatist region. First, economically: Russia provides free gas, which allows the region's heavy industry to produce at a low cost.
On the military side, the Russian army has kept some 1,500 soldiers in Transnistria permanently since 1992 and has a military base in Tiraspol. The Kremlin officially calls this presence a “peacekeeping mission”. Maia Sandu, the pro-European Moldovan president, has proposed replacing this force with observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), but Russia is opposed.
However, Moscow does not support Transnistrian independence. For thirty years, Russia has encouraged an arrangement between Moldovans and Transnistrians. The integration of Transnistria would indeed give it a relay of influence to direct Moldova's foreign policy, which is looking towards Europe. Moldova officially applied to join the European Union a few days after the war in Ukraine began.
5. What happened recently in Transnistria?
On Monday, April 25, 2022, the headquarters of the separatist region's Ministry of Security was reportedly fired upon. On Tuesday, two explosions damaged radio antennas transmitting Russian frequencies and an explosion was reportedly heard at a military base. On Wednesday, the authorities in Tiraspol reported that shots were fired from Ukrainian territory at an ammunition depot.
According to experts, three hypotheses explain these incidents. The first is that of internal tensions within the Transnistrian power between supporters of a rapprochement with Russia and pragmatic businessmen aware of the importance of Ukrainian economic opportunities. In Ukraine, some observers think that it is a move by Russia, which is organizing attacks as a pretext for future intervention. The Russians, on the other hand, blame the Ukrainians, who would like to chase away the Moscow troops stationed not far from their border.
6. Is war likely?
In Tiraspol, as in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, the authorities are careful not to point the finger. Tiraspol mentioned a “terrorist threat”, but did not name anyone responsible. The Moldovan president denounced an “attempt to increase tensions” while calling on the population to “calm down”. After the incidents, Maia Sandu convened a security council at the end of which she announced measures to strengthen security in the country, including road and border controls.
For its part, Russia assured Moldova that it did not want to be dragged into the conflict. But several statements by senior Russian officials have worried the central government in Chisinau. A Russian general also said that the Russian-speaking population of Moldova was the victim of “oppression” - one of the pretexts invoked by Moscow to invade Ukraine and “defend” the Russian minority. And many observers fear that Transnistria could be used as a rear base for Russian operations in southern Ukraine, like Belarus in the north.
The situation between Moldova and Transnistria has not resulted in any deaths for thirty years. On both sides, wisdom prevails and everyone understands that they have a lot to lose in case of war.
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