4 Lessons on Modern Warfare After 100 Days of Putin’s War in Ukraine.
Armed drones are changing the game on the ground.
Just 102 days ago, on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of the Russian army in Ukraine. The first rockets and the first Russian soldiers arrived in Ukraine, and the world was stunned. Since then, Russia has succeeded in conquering 20% of the Ukrainian territory, according to the figures put forward by the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.
The primary objective of the Russian “special military operation” was the complete conquest of Ukraine, to “denazify” the country and its state structure. This goal has not yet been achieved: the offensive around Kyiv has been stopped, and the second and third largest cities, Kharkiv and Odesa, also remain in Ukrainian hands.
However, in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (provinces), the situation is less rosy. Mariupol has been conquered, so Russia now has complete control over the area between the pro-Russian satellite states of Ukraine and the annexed Crimean peninsula. Meanwhile, the battle for Sievierodonetsk, the last major city in Luhansk, which at the time of writing is still partly in Ukrainian hands, is raging.
This extremely cruel war teaches us at least 4 major lessons about the future of modern warfare.
1. The essential role of the media (traditional and social)
In the current conflict, the media and social networks have played and are playing an important role - and will probably continue to do so in the future. Volodymyr Zelensky regularly addresses the world, and the images of the Ukrainian president and his administration, dressed in wartime clothes, marching through the streets of Kyiv to urge his men to fight, have entered the collective memory.
He visited Bolshaya, the suburb of Kyiv where the Russian occupiers oppressed, raped, and brutally murdered the local population without warning, with many European politicians in his wake. Through his strong presence in the world media and on social networks, Zelensky is trying to maintain the morale of his soldiers and gain more support internationally, to force military assistance. With success.
In addition, digitalization seems to play a major role in the war itself. During the attempted siege of Kyiv, residents of Russian-occupied villages and towns used the Diia application, which allows Ukrainians to save digital documents, such as driver's licenses or COVID passports, in peacetime. During the war, the application is now used to share the location of Russian soldiers with the Ukrainian army.
Telegram, an encrypted chat application, has also contributed: the Ukrainian intelligence services have launched a chatbot called “STOP Russian War”, where citizens can share information about Russian troops, supplemented by a location on Google Maps. The sent data is verified by agents and forwarded to the Ukrainian General Staff.
2. Armed drones are changing the game in the theater of war
Drones have been used for years in conflicts around the world: the CIA used them between 2004 and 2018 in Pakistan to take out Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders, and in Yemen as well (where, more recently, Houthi rebels were also killed by drones).
Ukraine also has drones, including the Turkish Bayraktar TB2. Since the beginning of the invasion, they have been used to map the positions of enemy troops and then bomb them. Unlike in Pakistan or Yemen, drones are even used to blow up tanks and ships, and Ukraine is getting more and more of them thanks to Western arms shipments.
Ukraine should also be especially grateful to the Lithuanian people and the drone manufacturer Bayraktar. A Lithuanian media platform set up a crowdfunding campaign to raise five million euros, with which the country would buy a Turkish TB2 and donate it to Ukraine. Three days later, the requested sum had already been raised, but Bayraktar - with the complicity of Ankara - decided to reward this solidarity and donate the drone for free. The five million will now be used for ammunition and support (the exact form of which is not yet known) to Ukraine.
In addition, the U.S. is providing other types of drones, kamikazes, including the Phoenix Ghost and the Switchblade. Today, drones can identify targets at great distances and attack them with great precision, without becoming the target of counterfire themselves. An additional advantage is that there is no pilot involved: a drone crash is better than a fighter plane crash.
There is no longer any denying that drones are part of the battlefield, now and in the future. They are suitable for a variety of scenarios, are relatively easy to control, and can cause a lot of damage. With the right weaponry, ships and vehicles, even tanks, can be disabled without the pilot being in any real danger.
3. The virtues of decentralization of the Ukrainian infantry highlighted
The war in Ukraine also shows a significant difference between the organization of Russian and Ukrainian troops. Where Russia likes to centralize the command of the army (how could it be otherwise with a dictator like Vladimir Putin in power), the Ukrainian army works much more independently.
As a result, the different units are much faster and more responsive, which is especially useful when you are fighting like David against Goliath. As a defender country, there is also much less need for a grand general plan. Ukraine's objective is simple in itself. Its operation has clear links to the way the NATO bloc trains its various forces.
This tactic is very effective, for example, in liberating the area around Kyiv and then all of northeastern Ukraine. Moreover, such a structure of the army, where the central command has much less influence and less to say, is very dependent on trust in the lower officers.
4. The failure of the centralization of the Russian army
Then there is Russia. The country has many more soldiers and seems to care less about their physical and mental health. The objective, the conquest of Ukraine, was to be achieved at all costs. This does not seem to be working at the moment. The large, unwieldy units are also often ill-informed about the terrain and the resistance of the Ukrainians, who often operate in what amounts to a guerrilla war.
Moreover, Vladimir Putin, like Adolf Hitler at the end of World War II, does not seem to trust his army command. Dozens of officers have died, and others are replaced at short notice. In April, Alexander Dvornikov, who had terrorized the local population in Syria, was appointed commander-in-chief of the invasion. Now he has not been heard from for a fortnight, raising serious doubts about his continued employment.
This mistrust continues at lower levels as well. Every maneuver has to be discussed with the central administration in Moscow, which means that, in theory, Putin himself gives the orders for combat groups of 1,500 soldiers: the job of an average colonel. The failed crossing of the Donets River a few weeks ago is perfect proof of this. A machine that is too heavy and too slow is facing smaller and much more maneuverable Ukrainian units.
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